Rolling 60-day catalyst calendar showing every scheduled event on the user's coverage list. Auto-generated pre-mortem briefs ship 48 hours before each high-severity event: scenario tree, expected move, comparable-event precedents, IR contact, and a concise ABI analyst note. Position-tagging surfaces which catalysts hit names you actually own. Default subscription tier shown; Gold tier adds Slack alerts and custom-name additions.
| Mechanism | BAFF + APRIL inhibitor |
| Class | TACI-Fc fusion protein |
| Indication | IgAN, adults at risk |
| Phase 3 | ORIGIN study (positive) |
| Endpoint hit | UPCR reduction at 36w |
| Pivotal n | 376 randomised |
| Pricing model | $95-$120k annual est |
| 2030 peak sales | $1.4-$2.1B Street range |
| Current cap | $3.84B |
| Spot | $48.20 |
| Cash runway | Q3 2027 (clean) |
| Short interest | 14.8% of float |
| 30D options IV | 198% (PDUFA implied) |
| 1Y consensus | $72 (mean of 9) |
| Buy/Hold/Sell | 7 / 2 / 0 |
| Top holder | RTW Inv (12.4%) |
| Drug | Sponsor | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tarpeyo | Calliditas | Approved 2021 |
| Filspari | Travere | Approved 2023 |
| Fabhalta | Novartis | Approved 2024 |
| sibeprenlimab | Otsuka/Visterra | BLA filed Q1 2026 |
| atacicept | Vera (VERA) | PDUFA Jul 7 |
| BION-1301 | Chinook→Novartis | Ph3 readout 2027 |
Approval with no boxed warning, no REMS, broad label "adults with IgAN at risk of disease progression." Spot $48 → $70-$80. Triggers institutional ramp; reset 1Y target $90-$110. Watch for ramp-rate language on Q3 call.
Approval with REMS (e.g., infection monitoring, vaccination requirements). Modest positive – peak-sales estimate trims 15-20%. Spot $48 → $55-$60. Buy-side likely to interpret as "expected outcome at the margin."
CRL for CMC, additional safety follow-up, or pivotal-data re-analysis. Spot $48 → $12-$22. Cash runway forces capital raise. Re-filing 12-18m timeline. Most plausible CRL trigger: long-term immunosuppression safety questions.
| Drug | Sponsor | PDUFA Date | Outcome | D1 stock move | D+30 move | Read-across to VERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabhalta | NVS (IgAN expansion) | Apr 2024 | Approved | broad | +5.8% | +11.4% | NVS too big to move much; sentiment positive |
| Filspari | Travere (TVTX) | Feb 2023 | Approved | accelerated | +72% | +58% | Closest comp. Single-product biotech approval |
| Tarpeyo | Calliditas (Apr 2022 EU) | Dec 2021 | Approved | accelerated | +38% | +44% | Strong comp; smaller biotech |
| elobixibat IgAN | Albireo | 2021 | CRL | -46% | -62% | CRL downside reference point |
| nemolizumab | Galderma | 2024 (atopic derm) | Approved | REMS | +8% | +12% | REMS-approval reference |
| Head of IR | Wendy DiCicco | COO |
| External IR firm | Burns McClellan |
| IR phone | (650) 550-6000 |
| IR email | ir@veratx.com |
| Last sell-side call | Apr 14, 2026 with Stifel |
| PDUFA day plan | Press release morning of decision, conf call 8:30 AM ET |
Our read going into the PDUFA: approve with broad label is base case (55%). The ORIGIN trial UPCR delta vs placebo was clean, no PRO concerns surfaced, and Type A meeting outcomes per company-disclosed minutes were favorable. The 20% CRL probability is anchored by the long-term immunosuppression safety question – if FDA requires additional safety follow-up it would be a 12-18m delay scenario.
Suggested position management: if currently long, consider trimming 30-40% into the print to capture the volatility skew. If pair-trading, use Calliditas (CALT) as the structurally lower-vol IgAN comp.
