ABI ANALYTICS
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ABI_USCMR_01 Thematic Basket | Equity-Cash | Long-Only Inception Apr 1, 2025 Rebalanced Quarterly

ABI Thematic Basket – US Critical Materials & Reshoring

22 names | DoD / DOE / IRA-levered names | USD-denominated | as of May 26, 2026
148.72
+0.84% | +1.24
basket level | rebased to 100 at inception
A 22-name long-only US equity basket levered to the structural reshoring of critical materials supply chains. Constituents span rare earths (MP, USAR), specialty alloys & metals (MTRN, IPX), copper & base metals (FCX, SCCO, TECK), battery materials (ALB, LAC, PLL, LTHM), precious metals refining (AMRK, CDE, HL, USAU), titanium & niobium (IPX, NB, EXAR), and downstream processors. Theme drivers: DPA Title III awards, IRA section 45X, DoE Critical Materials List 2026 update, and Pentagon-led offtake agreements.
Basket level
148.72
rebased to 100
1Y return
+48.7%
vs SPX +14.2%
vs S&P 500
+34.5%
excess return
Beta (1Y)
1.42
vs SPX
Max drawdown
−17.8%
Aug 2025
Names
22
5 sub-themes
Basket vs SPX vs XME | 1 Year (rebased to 100)
USCMR +48.7% | SPX +14.2% | XME +22.4%
live
Inception: Apr 1, 2025 | alpha vs SPX +34.5pp | alpha vs XME +26.3pp | annualized vol 22.4%

Constituents | 22 names

Live weights and ratings | ABI exposure score is a 1-10 measure of % of revenue/EBITDA derived from theme-relevant activity
live prices 22 of 22 covered
Ticker Company Sub-theme Weight % Price YTD % 1Y % Exp. ABI View
MPMP MaterialsRare earths8.2%$32.18+42.4%+118%10
Favorable
MTRNMaterion CorporationSpecialty alloys7.4%$185.89+38.1%+124%9
Neutral
USARUSA Rare EarthRare earths6.8%$18.42+62.1%+184%10
Favorable
IPXIperionX LimitedSpecialty alloys6.4%$24.18+51.2%+138%10
Favorable
ALBAlbemarle Corp.Battery materials6.2%$132.40+18.4%+24.8%8
Neutral
FCXFreeport-McMoRanCopper/base6.0%$58.72+12.1%+34.4%6
Favorable
SCCOSouthern CopperCopper/base5.6%$112.40+8.4%+28.1%5
Neutral
LACLithium AmericasBattery materials5.4%$4.82+34.4%−12.4%10
Favorable
PLLPiedmont LithiumBattery materials5.0%$18.40+24.8%−8.1%10
Favorable
LTHMLivent (Arcadium)Battery materials4.6%$6.84+18.2%−14.4%9
Neutral
RIORio Tinto plcCopper/base4.4%$68.24+10.4%+18.4%5
Neutral
TECKTeck ResourcesCopper/base4.2%$58.42+22.8%+42.4%6
Favorable
NBNioCorp DevelopmentsRare earths3.6%$2.18+82.4%+148%10
Favorable
EXARExaro ResourcesRare earths3.4%$8.14+48.4%+108%10
Favorable
TMCTMC the metals co.Rare earths3.2%$2.42+128%+312%10
Neutral
USAUU.S. Gold Corp.Precious refining3.0%$10.42+18.2%+42.1%8
Favorable
AMRKA-Mark Precious MetalsPrecious refining2.8%$32.14+12.4%+24.1%7
Neutral
CDECoeur MiningPrecious refining2.6%$8.42+24.8%+38.4%7
Favorable
HLHecla MiningPrecious refining2.4%$6.48+18.4%+34.2%7
Neutral
USCMUS Critical Metals Inc.Specialty alloys2.2%$1.42+62.4%+184%10
Favorable
PERPPerpetua ResourcesSpecialty alloys2.1%$12.42+38.4%+78.4%10
Favorable
UECUranium Energy Corp.Specialty alloys1.9%$8.42+28.4%+48.2%9
Favorable
Total | 22 names100.0%+34.7%+48.7%8.2 avg16 Buy | 6 Hold | 0 Sell

Sub-theme Breakdown

Weights and 1Y contribution to basket return by sub-theme
Weight by sub-theme
% of basket NAV
Sub-theme 1Y contribution to basket return
decomposed return, basis points
Rare earths (25% weight) contributed +18.4pp of the basket's +48.7% return – driven by MP, USAR, NB and TMC on Pentagon offtake announcements. Battery materials (21% weight) contributed only +4.1pp as lithium spot prices remained range-bound through 1H 2026.

Supply Chain Map Visual

Material flow from mine to end customer | arrows show offtake / supply relationships disclosed in public filings or DPA Title III agreements
UPSTREAM | Mine / Source
MP | Mountain Pass
REE mine, CA | NdPr / Dy / Tb
USAR | Round Top
REE mine, Hudspeth TX | heavy rare earths
LAC | Thacker Pass
Li clay mine, NV | >40 yr reserves
PERP | Stibnite
Au + Sb mine, ID | DPA Ti III $59M
PLL | Carolina
Li spodumene | Tin-Spodumene Belt
NB | Elk Creek
Nb | only US-domestic Nb resource
FCX | Morenci/Bagdad
Cu mine, AZ | 1.4B lbs/yr
PROCESS | Refine / Convert
MP | Independence facility
REE separation + metalization | TX
USAR | Stillwater plant
REE oxide separation
ALB | Kings Mountain
Li hydroxide conversion, NC
MTRN | Elmore
Be hydroxide refinery, UT | sole US
IPX | Virginia Pilot Plant
Ti powder + HAMR process
PLL | Carolina Lithium
Spodumene → LiOH conversion
USCM | Pilot facility
Sb/W concentrate processing
FABRICATE | Mid-stream
MP | Magnetics (Independence)
NdFeB magnets | 1,000 t/yr by 2026
MTRN | Electronic Materials
PVD targets, microelectronic packages
IPX | Titanium components
Ti billet, plate, powder for AM
USAU | Refining facility
Au/Ag precious metals refining
EXAR | Mountain Pass dist.
REE oxide → magnet metal
UEC | ISR uranium
Yellowcake U3O8 for nuclear
CDE/HL | Silver mints
Ag for solar/EV/electronics
END | Defense / EV / Semi
LMT / RTX / GD
F-35, missile guidance, radar (Be, REE)
TSLA / GM / F
EV battery + motor magnets
AMAT / LRCX / TSM
Semi cap eq + fab consumables
DoD Stockpile
DLA strategic stockpile | 12 materials
DOE / NNSA
Nuclear, fusion, mil-grade R&D
GE Vernova / SMR builders
Wind turbines, SMR fuel cycle
Tier-1 Auto / EV OEMs
Battery cathode, drive magnets
Notable disclosed offtakes: MP ↔ GM (NdFeB magnet supply Q4 2026); ALB ↔ Tesla (Li hydroxide multi-year); IPX ↔ DoD (Ti powder DPA Title III $99M award Q3 2025); PERP ↔ US DoD (Sb 100% for DLA stockpile per 2024 award); USAR ↔ Pentagon (heavy REE under negotiation, expected Q3 2026).

Policy Catalyst Tracker | Next 6 Months

Upcoming DoD / DOE / IRA / commerce-dept events that could move basket constituents. Updated weekly.
Date
Event
Impact
Names
Jun 10, 2026
DoE Critical Materials List 2026 update – final
Gallium, germanium, antimony likely added; could trigger DPA awards
USCM, PERP, USAR
Jun 24, 2026
DPA Title III Q2 2026 announcement
~$340M expected for processing capacity; rare earth separation top candidate
MP, USAR, IPX
Jul 15, 2026
IRA Section 45X bonus credit clarification (Treasury)
Definitions for "critical mineral" production credit; affects offtake economics
ALB, MP, LAC
Jul 28, 2026
EXIM Bank board vote – $850M loan guarantee for US REE separation
Vote scheduled; first such guarantee since 2018
MP, USAR, EXAR
Aug 5, 2026
DLA strategic stockpile FY27 procurement plan (filed by law)
Watch antimony, beryllium, tungsten line items vs FY26
MTRN, PERP, USCM
Sep 12, 2026
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – deep-sea mining vote
Could delay TMC's NORI-D pilot indefinitely (or accelerate)
TMC
Oct 1, 2026
Commerce Dept – 232 tariff review (steel + critical metals)
Tariff extension on Russian/Chinese antimony, gallium expected
PERP, USCM, USAR
Oct 21, 2026
DoE Loan Programs Office – Q3 batch (~$1.2B)
Battery materials + Li conversion expected to dominate
ALB, LAC, PLL, LTHM
Nov 2, 2026
Pentagon FY28 budget request – critical materials line
DPA Title III appropriation level; $620M requested for FY27, watch for FY28
ALL
Nov 15, 2026
G7 critical materials summit (Tokyo)
Multilateral offtake framework expected; affects long-dated supply economics
MP, IPX, ALB

Custom Basket Builder Beta

Re-tilt the basket by sub-theme exposure. Replicate via GS PB swap with ABI-published constituents and weights.

Tilt the basket

32%
21%
14%
11%
22%
Custom weight sum: 100% | Projected beta vs SPX: 1.42 | Min position: 0.5% | Max position: 8% | Rebalance cadence: quarterly | Tracking error budget: ±150 bps
Projected sub-theme weight (after tilt)
% of basket NAV
Custom backtest: 5y annual return +18.4%, vol 22.4%, Sharpe 0.82, max DD −24.2% (Mar 2023). Replicates with 22 names; estimated TCA cost to launch 32 bps (one-way).

Alpha Attribution | 1Y

Brinson-Fachler-style decomposition of basket's +34.5pp excess return vs S&P 500
Attribution breakdown
Excess return vs SPX = +34.5pp
Theme tilt (sector beta to materials)
Materials & mining overweight vs SPX
+13.1pp38%
Stock selection within theme
MP, USAR, IPX, TMC vs theme median
+16.4pp48%
Beta amplification
Basket beta 1.42 in up-market
+6.2pp18%
Currency / dividend / other
FX, div reinvest residual
−1.2pp−4%
Key insight: Stock selection (~48% of alpha) is the largest contributor – driven by 4 names (MP, USAR, IPX, TMC) each contributing >3pp individually. This means the basket isn't simply a beta-1.4 play on materials; the active selection (which names within theme) accounts for half the alpha. Rebalances should preserve concentration in proven stock-pickers.
Top & bottom contributors | 1Y
By contribution to basket return
NameWeight1Y total retContribution
TMC3.2%+312%+8.4pp
USAR6.8%+184%+7.2pp
MP8.2%+118%+6.4pp
MTRN7.4%+124%+5.8pp
IPX6.4%+138%+4.9pp
...
LTHM4.6%−14.4%−0.7pp
LAC5.4%−12.4%−0.6pp
PLL5.0%−8.1%−0.4pp
Top 5 names contributed +32.7pp of basket's +48.7% return. Lithium-pure names (LAC, PLL, LTHM) were the only meaningful detractors.

Custom-Replicating Swap | Goldman Sachs PB

ABI publishes the basket as a tradeable total-return swap (TRS) through Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage

USCMR Total-Return Swap | GS PB

Replicate the basket without buying 22 individual lines. Quarterly rebalance handled by GS Delta-1 desk per ABI-published target weights. Funding spread + 38 bps. Minimum notional $25M. Daily liquidity. Available to ISDA counterparties with executed master agreement.
Funding spread (1y)
SOFR + 38 bps
Request term sheet