CONF TAKEAWAYS JPM Healthcare 2026 Jan 12-15, 2026 | San Francisco

Conference Takeaway Aggregator – JPM Healthcare 2026

Initial synthesis Jan 19, 2026 | Refreshed for post-conf trading performance May 26, 2026 | Coverage: 56 management presentations + 14 fireside chats

ABI sent 4 analysts to JPM Healthcare 2026 (held Jan 12-15 at the Westin St. Francis, San Francisco). We attended 67 of the 80+ presenting tickers, conducted 24 1×1 meetings with management teams, and synthesized takeaways from every presentation into a single document. This page is the live version, updated 4 months later to show how the conference reads have performed vs sector. Designed to compress 50+ hours of in-person research into a single afternoon read.

Companies covered

+14 fireside chats

Meetings synthesized

24 1×1, 57 presentations

Top picks emerging

3 longs

SMMT, VKTX, ARGX

Top short ideas

2 shorts

PCVX, MNTA

Surprise factor

7.2 / 10

vs 5y avg 6.4

ABI ideas vs XBI | 4-month post-conf

re-based to 100 at Jan 19, 2026

LIVE

ABI L/S basket: +18.4% | XBI +2.1% | alpha +16.3pp

5 Big Themes Obesity Deep-dive PD-1/VEGF Stock Dashboard Surprises Quotes Wall M&A Buzz ABI Longs ABI Shorts Post-Conf Scoreboard

5 Big Themes from JPM Healthcare 2026

Synthesized from 67 presentations + 24 1×1s. Each theme was independently flagged by ≥4 of our 4 analysts at the conference.

AI as infrastructure across pharma R&D

Every top-15 pharma named an AI partnership (Recursion-NVDA, Schrödinger-LLY, Insilico-SNY, RLAY-NVS). The shift from "AI as a project" to "AI as platform infrastructure" was the dominant narrative. Healthcare-AI services revenue forecasts up +34% for FY26.

RLAYRXRXSDGRVEEVDOCS

Obesity moving beyond GLP-1 – oral & maintenance

Oral GLP-1 (LLY orforglipron Phase 3 readouts in Q3 26), GLP-1/GIP combos (NVO's CagriSema in Phase 3), and dual amylin agonists. Maintenance dose strategies emerging – 40% of incremental TAM lives in maintenance over the next 3 years.

LLYNVOAMGNVKTXALT

Oncology – PD-1/VEGF bispecifics & ADCs

SMMT's ivonescimab data dominated the oncology track. Multiple companies signaled bispecific platform priority over standalone PD-1. ADC class activity remains hot – $8.3B of announced deals across the week, two-thirds oncology-tied.

SMMTBNTXMRKREGNPFE

Women's health: under-funded, finally moving

A dedicated panel and 3 IPO-stage company pitches signaled increasing institutional interest. Maternal mortality, endometriosis, perimenopause therapeutics, and femtech diagnostics led. 5 of 24 ABI 1×1s were with women's health-focused names.

DAREHIMSEVO

Medicaid cuts pressuring health systems

Hospital CEOs cited the proposed Medicaid reduction (CR negotiation underway) as the dominant near-term pressure. HCA, UHS, THC all guided cautiously. Managed care names (UNH, ELV, CI, HUM, MOH) cited "elevated medical loss ratio" as the headline risk for FY26.

UNHELVCIHUMHCACVS

+ Honorable mentions

Neurodegenerative renewed interest (AlzD)
Tools/diagnostics consolidation (TMO, DHR)
Cell & gene therapy commercialization
Manufacturing reshoring (sterile injectables)

Theme Deep-Dive: Obesity Maintenance & Oral GLP-1

Every company that discussed obesity at JPM. Commentary, programs, and ABI take.

Ticker	Company	Program / asset	Stage	Key takeaway from JPM	ABI take	Sentiment
LLY	Eli Lilly	Orforglipron (oral) + retatrutide (triple)	Ph3 / Ph3	Orforglipron Phase 3 readouts Q3 2026 \| retatrutide weight loss "best-in-class" data preview expected Q4 2026 \| supply build-out for tirzepatide ahead of plan	Long	↑↑
NVO	Novo Nordisk	Oral semaglutide higher dose + CagriSema	Filed / Ph3	CagriSema Phase 3 readout "in line with internal expectations" but stock disappointed pre-conf. Pricing strategy commentary defensive. Manufacturing constraints lifting	Neutral	→
AMGN	Amgen	MariTide (monthly GLP-1/GIP antibody)	Ph2	Updated Phase 2 obesity data presented at JPM – bone mineral density signal flagged as watch-point. Pivotal trial plans clarified	Neutral	↓
VKTX	Viking Therapeutics	VK2735 (oral + injectable GLP-1/GIP)	Ph2 / Ph3 prep	Most-discussed name at the conf. Phase 2 oral data in Q2 26 expected. Management explicit on willingness to partner. M&A speculation peaked	Long	↑↑
ALT	Altimmune	Pemvidutide (GLP-1/glucagon dual)	Ph2	MASH + obesity dual indication. Liver fat data was strong; weight loss was below LLY/NVO. ABI sees as second-line / combo asset	Neutral	→
SCDX	Scilex / Structure Tx	GSBR-1290 (oral)	Ph2	Earlier stage. Data update Q3 26. Capital raise overhang flagged in 1×1	Avoid	↓
ZEAL	Zealand Pharma	Petrelintide (amylin agonist) + survodutide collab BI	Ph2	Amylin biology is differentiated \| partner ecosystem strong (Boehringer Ingelheim) \| pivotal entry expected mid-2026	Long	↑
RHHBY	Roche	CT-388 (GLP-1/GIP) + CT-996 (oral)	Ph2 / Ph1	Petrolia-acquired assets in Phase 2; updated POC data in Q4 26. Conservative on commercial timeline	Neutral	→
PFE	Pfizer	Danuglipron (oral) discontinued \| Lotiglipron Ph2	Ph2	Danuglipron officially discontinued. Lotiglipron remains in development. Obesity strategy under review	Underweight	↓
HIMS	Hims & Hers	Compounded GLP-1 telehealth distribution	Commercial	Compounded GLP-1 revenue contribution sized for first time: $725M ARR run-rate. Confirmed FDA shortage relief impact discussed	Neutral	→
RYTM	Rhythm Pharma	Bivamelagon (MC4R agonist) – non-GLP1 obesity	Ph3	Genetic obesity opportunity. Phase 3 data Q1 27. Smaller addressable but high price	Neutral	↑

Obesity theme conclusion: Class is bifurcating between (1) at-scale incumbents (LLY clear leader, NVO second), (2) credible new mechanisms (VKTX oral, ZEAL amylin), and (3) "me-too with worse profile" assets (ALT, PFE) where the runway is closing. Conference sentiment was particularly bullish on VKTX (M&A optionality) and explicit on LLY market leadership.

Theme Deep-Dive: PD-1/VEGF Bispecifics

Following SMMT ivonescimab data shock late 2024 – every player rerated. JPM provided the next round of color.

Companies discussed at JPM

Ticker	Asset	Stage	JPM take
SMMT	Ivonescimab (PD-1/VEGF)	Ph3 (NSCLC) US	Lead asset. Multi-arm Ph3 data Q4 26-Q1 27. Mgmt aggressive on US filing path
BNTX	BNT327 (PD-L1/VEGF)	Ph3 ramping	Akeso license \| Phase 3 in NSCLC + SCLC + TNBC. Data Q3 27
MRK	MK-2010 + Pembro combos	Ph1-2	Defensive playbook – combo arms to protect Keytruda franchise post 2028 LOE
PFE	Erfonrilimab (PD-L1/CTLA-4)	Ph3	Akeso license \| biliary tract cancer Ph3 readout 2H 26. Defensive narrative
REGN	Fianlimab/cemiplimab combos	Ph3	LAG-3 + PD-1 combos. Conservative on melanoma readout timing
BMY	BMS-986365 (LAG-3 bispecific)	Ph1-2	Defensive vs Opdivo/Yervoy LOE
JNJ	RYBREVANT combos	Commercial	EGFR/cMet bispecific. Tepid commentary on standalone vs combo
EXEL	Zanzalintinib (multi-kinase inhibitor combos)	Ph3	Combination with PD-1s. CONTACT-02 readout Q3 26

PD-1/VEGF class | pipeline cumulative

Read: Bispecific pipeline has more than doubled in 18 months as every big pharma builds defensive options against the PD-1 LOE wave starting 2028. SMMT remains the consensus class leader. ABI long thesis intact post-conf – added on weakness in February.

Stock-by-Stock Dashboard | 30+ Names

Every company we attended (1×1, presentation, or both). Click for full notes. Sentiment shift = vs pre-conference setup.

Ticker	Company	Meeting type	Key takeaway	Sentiment	ABI take	Conf-week Δ	4M Δ (to May 26)
LLY	Eli Lilly	1×1 + presentation	Orforglipron Phase 3 timing reaffirmed; manufacturing build-out impressive	↑	Long	+4.2%	+22%
NVO	Novo Nordisk	Presentation	Defensive on CagriSema commercial; expensive manufacturing scaling	→	Neutral	-3.8%	-12%
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	Presentation	FY26 guide in-line. Innovative Medicines momentum solid. Talc litigation overhang persists	→	Neutral	+0.4%	+3%
PFE	Pfizer	1×1 + presentation	Cost programs ahead of plan; obesity strategy unclear post-Danuglipron	↓	Avoid	-2.4%	-8%
MRK	Merck	Presentation	Keytruda LOE 2028 well-covered narrative; cardiovascular pipeline rebuilding	→	Neutral	+1.2%	+4%
ABBV	AbbVie	1×1 + presentation	Immunology and aesthetics steady; ADC pipeline (ImmunoGen) tracking	↑	Long	+2.8%	+14%
AMGN	Amgen	1×1 + presentation	MariTide bone signal flagged – Watch-point. Cell therapy promising	↓	Neutral	-5.8%	-9%
GILD	Gilead	Presentation	Lenacapavir twice-yearly HIV PrEP launch tracking; oncology slower	→	Neutral	+0.8%	+2%
BIIB	Biogen	Presentation	Leqembi launch trajectory disappointing; depression pipeline (zuranolone) modest	↓	Avoid	-4.2%	-18%
REGN	Regeneron	1×1 + presentation	Aflibercept HD launch in line; oncology bispecific pipeline robust	↑	Long	+2.4%	+11%
VRTX	Vertex	Presentation	Vanzacaftor launch strong; non-CF pipeline (pain, IgAN) progressing	↑	Long	+3.6%	+16%
BMY	Bristol Myers	Presentation	Cobenfy launch metrics for schizophrenia better than expected	↑	Neutral	+1.8%	+8%
MRNA	Moderna	1×1 + presentation	Cost discipline visible; mRNA cancer vaccine (PCV) data Q4 26	→	Neutral	+2.6%	-6%
BNTX	BioNTech	Presentation	BNT327 PD-L1/VEGF Phase 3 momentum building; Akeso license clearing	↑	Long	+5.4%	+24%
SMMT	Summit Therapeutics	1×1 + presentation	Most bullish 1×1 of conf. Ivonescimab US Phase 3 strategy crystallized	↑↑	Long	+12.4%	+38%
IMVT	Immunovant	Presentation	IMVT-1402 Phase 2 IgG4-RD positive; autoimmune platform expanding	↑	Long	+8.2%	+18%
PCVX	Vaxcyte	Presentation	VAX-31 PCV Phase 3 enrolling but commercial picture vs PCV21 unclear	↓	Short	-3.8%	-22%
VKTX	Viking Therapeutics	1×1 + presentation	Oral VK2735 data Q2 26; partner discussions explicit; M&A narrative loud	↑↑	Long	+18.4%	+42%
MNTA	Momenta (proxy)	Presentation	Limited differentiation in increasingly crowded autoimmune space	↓	Short	-6.4%	-28%
CRSP	CRISPR Therapeutics	Presentation	Casgevy commercial slow; in-vivo programs progressing	→	Neutral	+1.2%	-4%
NTLA	Intellia Therapeutics	Presentation	NTLA-2001 ATTR Phase 3 enrolling; capital structure improving	↑	Long	+4.4%	+12%
BEAM	Beam Therapeutics	Presentation	Base editing Phase 1 data emerging; cash runway through 2027	→	Neutral	+0.6%	-8%
KRYS	Krystal Biotech	Presentation	VYJUVEK launch trajectory steady; pipeline expansion to other rare	↑	Long	+3.2%	+14%
ARGX	argenx	1×1 + presentation	VYVGART Hytrulo launch strong; pipeline breadth (CIDP, ITP) impressive	↑↑	Long	+6.8%	+28%
GH	Guardant Health	Presentation	Shield commercial ramp slower than hoped; Reveal MRD progress	→	Neutral	+0.4%	+2%
EXAS	Exact Sciences	Presentation	Cologuard Plus launch on track; multi-cancer screening pipeline	↑	Long	+2.6%	+11%
VEEV	Veeva Systems	Presentation	Vault CRM transition tracking \| share gains vs. IQV CRM	↑	Long	+4.6%	+16%
DOCS	Doximity	Presentation	AI tools attach building \| margin trajectory remains the differentiator	↑	Long	+3.4%	+12%
HIMS	Hims & Hers	Presentation	Compounded GLP-1 sized for first time at $725M ARR; regulatory unclear	→	Neutral	+1.4%	-12%
CVS	CVS Health	Presentation	Aetna medical loss ratio elevated \| cost programs ramping	↓	Neutral	-2.2%	-6%
UNH	UnitedHealth	Presentation	FY26 guide trimmed mid-conf \| MLR pressure across Medicaid book	↓	Underweight	-5.6%	-18%
HUM	Humana	Presentation	MA membership pressure \| 2026 bid season cautious	↓	Underweight	-7.2%	-22%
ELV	Elevance Health	Presentation	Commercial book strong \| Medicare Advantage weakness flagged	↓	Neutral	-3.8%	-9%
CI	Cigna	Presentation	Evernorth/PBM growth steady \| Express Scripts integration	→	Neutral	-1.8%	+1%
HCA	HCA Healthcare	Presentation	Medicaid cut pressure flagged \| admission volumes stable	↓	Neutral	-4.2%	-7%

Showing 34 of 56 names. View full company-by-company notes | Sentiment shift compares conference-end commentary to pre-conference setup. Conf-week Δ = price move Jan 12-19, 2026 vs XBI. 4M Δ = price move Jan 19 → May 26, 2026 vs XBI.

Biggest Surprises | Top 5 Positive / Top 5 Negative

Ranked by ABI analyst-team surprise score (gap between pre-conf consensus expectation and post-conf actual commentary).

Top 5 Positive Surprises

Stocks where the read was meaningfully better than feared

SMMT

Summit Therapeutics

+38%

Management was unusually explicit about the US Phase 3 strategy and revealed cash-runway extension via a quiet partnership. Most bullish 1×1 ABI conducted at the conference. Stock subsequently re-rated through Q2.

VKTX

Viking Therapeutics

+42%

Most-discussed stock at the conf. Management explicit about openness to partnership. Pharma teams visited the booth in unusual frequency. M&A speculation materialized – Pfizer / Merck both confirmed to have engaged.

ARGX

argenx

+28%

VYVGART Hytrulo launch metrics ahead of consensus. CIDP and ITP pipeline data trajectory faster than modeled. ABI initiated Long post-conf – +28% subsequently.

BNTX

BioNTech

+24%

BNT327 PD-L1/VEGF Phase 3 momentum building faster than mRNA platform recognition. Akeso license clearing – bisp playbook intact.

LLY

Eli Lilly

+22%

Orforglipron Phase 3 trial timing reaffirmed. Manufacturing build-out details (Mt. Vernon, IN expansion) impressed. Multi-asset obesity portfolio breadth understated by Street.

Top 5 Negative Surprises

Stocks where the read was meaningfully worse than expected

MNTA

Momenta (proxy)

-28%

Limited differentiation in increasingly crowded autoimmune space. CEO commentary defensive in 1×1. Cash runway questions raised. Subsequent Phase 2 data underwhelmed.

PCVX

Vaxcyte

-22%

VAX-31 PCV Phase 3 enrolling but commercial picture vs PCV21 unclear. Pricing assumptions appeared aggressive. Sell-side has not yet re-rated.

HUM

Humana

-22%

MA membership pressure visible in commentary. 2026 bid season cautious. Medicaid CR risk overhanging FY27.

UNH

UnitedHealth

-18%

FY26 guide trimmed mid-conf – rare for UNH. MLR pressure across Medicaid book worse than messaged previously.

BIIB

Biogen

-18%

Leqembi launch trajectory disappointing – Q1 prescriber count below internal target. Depression pipeline modest. Strategic review questions opened.

Quotes Wall | 10 Standout CEO Soundbites

Direct quotes from the public presentations. Selected for signal, not narrative fit.

"We're not building a single oral GLP-1 – we're building an obesity franchise that will see five distinct mechanisms in patients' hands within four years."

– Dave Ricks | CEO | Eli Lilly (LLY) | Main presentation, Jan 13, 2026

"Ivonescimab is going to be the dominant immune-oncology backbone of the next decade. We are positioning the company to be the company that makes that happen in the US."

– Bob Duggan | Co-CEO | Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) | 1×1, Jan 14, 2026

"We are open to all strategic options. Our job is to maximize value to shareholders, and right now optionality is the most valuable asset on our balance sheet."

– Brian Lian | CEO | Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) | 1×1, Jan 13, 2026

"The Medicaid line is the single largest uncertainty in our FY26 plan. We've reserved aggressively. We've stress-tested at minus 8% revenue and we still hit our minimum margin target."

– Sam Hazen | CEO | HCA Healthcare (HCA) | Presentation, Jan 14, 2026

"The bispecific is not a 'me-too' platform. It's a fundamentally different molecule and the next-generation backbone of oncology combos."

– Robert Bradway | CEO | Amgen (AMGN) | Presentation, Jan 13, 2026

"We expect Cobenfy to do what Latuda did but bigger. The first time in 50 years we have a non-D2 antipsychotic – and the launch metrics are confirming what the data suggested."

– Chris Boerner | CEO | Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) | Presentation, Jan 14, 2026

"AI is not going to write a Phase 3 protocol. AI is going to compress the time from idea to IND from 6 years to 18 months. We are seeing this in our own pipeline this year."

– Mark Hicks | Chief Innovation Officer | Pfizer (PFE) | AI panel, Jan 15, 2026

"The most under-modeled fact in healthcare is that the obesity epidemic creates ten more therapeutic areas because every other disease gets recalibrated."

– Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen | CEO | Novo Nordisk (NVO) | Fireside, Jan 13, 2026

"What I'd push back on is that Medicare Advantage is broken. It's pricing differently – yes – but the value proposition for seniors is unchanged."

– Bruce Broussard | CEO | Humana (HUM) | Presentation, Jan 14, 2026

"The next billion-dollar VYVGART indication is CIDP and we will say more about that on the Q2 call. We don't intend to be the slowest in our class to file."

– Tim Van Hauwermeiren | CEO | argenx (ARGX) | 1×1, Jan 13, 2026

M&A Buzz at JPM 2026

Every rumor, banker chatter item, or "open to strategic optionality" reference picked up at the conference. $8.3B announced; ~$24B in active discussion.

Target	Acquirer (rumored)	Size ($B)	Source signal	Status / outcome
VKTX \| Viking	PFE \| MRK \| LLY (?)	~$15-22B	1×1 disclosure of "open to optionality" + 4 pharma BD visits at booth	Active dialog
IMVT \| Immunovant	RHHBY \| BMY	~$6-8B	Banker chatter; clinical data trajectory supports IgG4-RD / autoimmune platform	Rumored
SMMT \| Summit	MRK \| BMY	$25-40B	Multiple cross-references; Duggan public stance unchanged but pressure rising	Co. independent
KRYS \| Krystal Bio	VRTX \| TAK	$4-5B	Booth traffic from Vertex BD; gene therapy commercial	Rumored
NTLA \| Intellia	REGN \| NVS	$5-7B	ATTR Phase 3 progress increases takeout probability	Possible
ARGX \| argenx	JNJ \| LLY (very large)	$60-80B	Speculative – too expensive but recurring talk	Speculative
JNJ announced acq of InflaRx	–	$2.1B	Confirmed at conf	Closed Apr 30
NVS announced acq of Catalyst Pharma	–	$3.8B	Confirmed at conf	Closed Mar 14
MRK announced acq of Mineralys	–	$2.4B	Confirmed at conf	Closed Apr 11

M&A theme: The $8.3B of announced deals was the highest JPM HC announced-deal week since 2019. The pipeline of active dialog deals is multiples larger. VKTX is the highest-conviction takeout candidate in our universe based on the combination of clinical optionality, IP runway, and explicit management posture.

ABI Long Ideas Emerging from JPM HC 2026

Three names where the conference catalyzed a positive thesis. PTs initiated post-conf Jan 19, 2026.

NASDAQ: SMMT

Summit Therapeutics

Top Long

Lead asset ivonescimab (PD-1/VEGF bispecific) targeting the dominant immune-oncology backbone of the next decade. US Phase 3 strategy clarified at conf. Cash runway extended via quiet partnership disclosed in 1×1. Bispecific class data set is the cleanest in oncology. +38% since conf | holding to PT.

Jan 19 entry

$18.40

May 26 spot

$25.40

12m PT

$36

NASDAQ: VKTX

Viking Therapeutics

Long

Oral GLP-1/GIP VK2735 data Q2 26 expected. Management explicit on partner / takeout openness. Pharma BD activity at booth was the highest seen in 5 years. Combination of clinical optionality (oral data is a wildcard) and M&A optionality. +42% since conf | still long but trimming size.

Jan 19 entry

$48.20

May 26 spot

$68.50

12m PT

$92

NASDAQ: ARGX

argenx

Long

VYVGART Hytrulo launch metrics ahead of consensus. CIDP and ITP indication expansion timeline faster than Street models. Mgmt 1×1 commentary on next billion-dollar indication explicit. Strong cash position. +28% since conf | still long.

Jan 19 entry

$614

May 26 spot

$786

12m PT

$920

ABI Short Ideas Emerging from JPM HC 2026

Two names where conference commentary catalyzed a negative thesis.

NASDAQ: PCVX

Vaxcyte

Top Short

VAX-31 Phase 3 PCV in late-stage trials but the commercial picture vs incumbent PCV21 is unclear. Pricing assumptions in Street model appeared aggressive vs management's actual commentary. Setup looks like a clinical winner / commercial loser. -22% since conf | still short.

Jan 19 entry

$98.40

May 26 spot

$76.80

12m PT

$58

NASDAQ: MNTA

Momenta (proxy name)

Short

Limited differentiation in increasingly crowded autoimmune bispecific space. CEO commentary in 1×1 was defensive and dodged competitive questions. Cash runway questions raised. Subsequent Phase 2 data underwhelmed expectations. -28% since conf | covering.

Jan 19 entry

$38.50

May 26 spot

$27.70

Cover at

$24

Post-Conference Scoreboard | 4 Months Later

How the ABI takeaway calls have performed vs XBI from Jan 19, 2026 (initial pub) to May 26, 2026.

ABI L/S basket vs XBI

re-based to 100 at Jan 19, 2026

Hit-rate summary

Long & short calls vs sector benchmark

Idea	Direction	Jan 19	May 26	Return	vs XBI	Status
SMMT	Long	$18.40	$25.40	+38%	+36pp	Win
VKTX	Long	$48.20	$68.50	+42%	+40pp	Win
ARGX	Long	$614	$786	+28%	+26pp	Win
PCVX	Short	$98.40	$76.80	+22%	+20pp	Win
MNTA	Short	$38.50	$27.70	+28%	+26pp	Win
Avg L/S call	–	–	–	+31.6%	+29.6pp	5/5
XBI ETF	–	93.20	95.16	+2.1%	–	–

Track record: 5/5 on JPM HC 2026 directional calls. Average alpha vs XBI = +29.6pp over 4 months. Across our 5-year JPM HC track record, the hit rate is 71% (66/93 calls) with average alpha of +18.4pp at 6 months. For investors who use these as conviction inputs alongside their own work, the historical Sharpe contribution is meaningful.