delivered to #abi-brief | 14 subscribers | auto-pinned by @ABI-Bot

Tuesday May 26, 2026 | 6:32:14 AM ET

SAMPLE CAP MGMT $850M AUM | L/S equity | 47L / 23S | NY | Apr-25 launch Bespoke brief

Morning Brief – Sample Capital Management

Tuesday May 26, 2026 | pre-market open | 70 positions covered | run-time 4m 18s

Tailored brief for your $850M L/S book – generated 6:32 AM ET. Overnight: 3 red flags, 9 sell-side rating/PT changes on coverage, 2 insider filings, 6 options-flow anomalies, 34 news items on long-book names. Today's catalysts: NVDA earnings AMC, MTRN Q1 print AMC, FOMC minutes 2 PM ET, JPM dividend ex-date. Markets thin pre-Memorial-Day-week; SPX futures −0.18%.

Positions covered

47L / 23S

Red flags overnight

2 long | 1 short

Sell-side changes

3 upgrades | 6 PT chg

Insider filings

1 buy | 1 plan-sale

Options anomalies

3 skew | 3 vol

News items

on coverage

Fund snapshot | pre-open

+18.4% YTD | gross 156%

NAV

$1,006M

Net exposure

48%

Top long

NVDA (5.2%)

Top short

DJT (3.4%)

Long gross

102%

Short gross

54%

VaR (1d, 95%)

$10.4M

Sector tilt

Tech / HC ovwt

Top of the Stack AI prioritized

The three things to read before the open | ranked by book-impact severity, time-to-catalyst, and information edge

1 MTRN insider purchase – CFO bought 5,000 shares @ $182.40 post-close HIGH Form 4 | verified LONG | 2.8% NAV

Form 4 filed 7:42 PM ET yesterday by CFO Shelly Chadwick: open-market purchase of 5,000 shares @ $182.40 ($912K). This is her largest single open-market purchase since taking the CFO role; her prior 12 months show 0 buys / 1 plan-sale of 3,200 shares. Comes 2 days before Q1 print (Wed AMC). Insider-purchase signal strength historically modest at Materion (~58% hit rate on +30d move based on 7y trailing data), but timing is unusually pointed. Recommend: ADD 25-50bps on open if <$184; do not chase >$190. Risk: standard 10b5-1 plan disclosure would have appeared in mgmt proxy; this looks unplanned.

Source: SEC Form 4 filed 2026-05-25 19:42 ET | MTRN spot $185.89 close | ABI insider-signal model

2 NVDA – Mizuho cut PT $1,200 → $1,050 ahead of Wed AMC earnings HIGH Mizuho note | 5:14 AM LONG | 5.2% NAV (largest)

Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh published a defensive pre-print note at 5:14 AM cutting NVDA PT from $1,200 to $1,050 (−12.5%) and downgrading Buy → Neutral. Citing softening hyperscaler capex commentary from MSFT/GOOG/AMZN Q1 prints (capex growth decel from +52% to +28% Y/Y) and pull-forward concern on Blackwell deliveries. This is the first Buy → Neutral on NVDA from a top-20 sell-side firm in 4 months. Spot $890; consensus PT $1,135 (28 analysts); Mizuho's $1,050 is now 4th-lowest on Street. Earnings Wed 5/27 AMC; whisper $0.84, consensus $0.80, ABI model $0.86.

Action: HOLD into print. ABI maintains BUY rating | PT $1,180. Position is largest long; do not add into print.

3 DLTR – reports Thursday AMO; consensus EPS $1.56, whisper $1.62 MED Catalyst in 48h LONG | 1.8% NAV

Dollar Tree reports Thursday before market open. Consensus EPS $1.56 (12 estimates), whisper $1.62. Same-store sales consensus +2.4%. Three watch-points: (1) Family Dollar segment commentary – last quarter mgmt flagged ongoing portfolio review, watch for divestiture timeline update; (2) gross margin – guided 30.8-31.2% vs 31.4% prior Q on shrink+ocean freight; (3) FY guide – current consensus EPS $7.35 vs co-implied $7.10-$7.40 range. Options imply ±9.4% move on print; historical realized average ±6.8%. Suggest: TRIM 50bps pre-print given asymmetric Family Dollar disclosure risk.

Source: FactSet consensus | ABI Estimate v2.1 | ABI implied-move model | OCC put/call ratio 1.21

Overnight News on Positions

34 news items on coverage filtered by ABI-Bot | 10 shown with rec action; full list in Slack thread

10 of 34 shown

Time (ET)	Ticker	Side	Headline	ABI take	Action
02:14	AAPL	L \| 3.2%	Foxconn India ramps iPhone 17 assembly 38% Q/Q per supply chain check	Mild positive. India share now ~17% of global iPhone build (vs 12% prior Q). Supports gross margin H2; does not move thesis materially.	Watch
02:48	TSLA	L \| 2.1%	Reuters: Berlin Gigafactory shut for 36 hours after grid event; expects 8K vehicle delivery slip	Modest. ~8K units = ~$320M revenue at risk; affects Q2 delivery print materially if not recovered. Berlin = ~14% of global capacity. Likely 80% recovered in Q3.	Watch
03:24	GOOGL	L \| 2.8%	Bloomberg: EU AI Act enforcement actions against 4 firms; Google not yet named but listed in "monitoring"	Low immediate impact. Worth monitoring; mgmt has consistently flagged EU regulatory cost as multi-quarter overhang. Position remains long; HC pre-trial likely.	Neutral
03:51	MSFT	L \| 4.1%	Azure outage in 3 N. America regions (US-East, US-Central, Canada-East) – ~4hr duration	Reputational only; SLA credit ~$15-25M Q2 expected. Outage now resolved. No material P&L impact.	Neutral
04:08	UNH	L \| 2.4%	DOJ widens Medicare Advantage upcoding probe to UnitedHealthcare Optum subsidiary	Red flag. Third DOJ touchpoint in 12m. Existing False Claims case has ~$2-4B exposure; Optum widening adds ~$1.5B incremental. Watch for 8-K disclosure by EOD.	Trim 50bps
04:42	LMT	L \| 1.9%	Pentagon awards $4.2B IDIQ extension for F-35 spares – LMT and 2 sub-primes	Positive but largely priced. ~$1.8B/yr over 24mo addition to backlog. Consensus included similar magnitude; nudges FY27 mid-single-digit. Constructive.	Neutral
05:02	LLY	L \| 2.2%	JAMA publishes obesity-class real-world adherence data: 18mo retention 34% (vs 51% trial data)	Mixed. Lower-than-trial retention is well-known but explicit data may dent sentiment short-term. Doesn't change LT TAM; affects FY27/FY28 revenue trajectory.	Neutral
05:18	CVNA	S \| 1.6%	WSJ: Carvana ADESA integration delayed 2 quarters; subprime delinquencies up 220bps	Validates short thesis. ADESA was the bull-case unlock; 2-quarter delay shifts margin expansion right. Sub-prime delinq +220bp aligns with our late-cycle credit deterioration model.	Add 50bps
05:34	AVGO	L \| 1.8%	Taiwan supply check: ASIC Q2 build orders +18% Q/Q; META/GOOG/AVGO all in queue	Strong positive read. Confirms our thesis that custom-silicon TAM accelerating; AVGO disproportionate beneficiary. Could see consensus FY26 EPS revisions +3-5%.	Add 25bps
05:58	PTON	S \| 0.8%	Peloton announces 8% workforce reduction; pre-announces Q1 miss ~$120M revenue	Validates short. Subscriber attrition accelerating (~6% Q/Q vs −3% prior). FY26 guide will likely come down; covers itself further into earnings.	Add 25bps

24 items not shown | low/no action items filtered automatically. Click "Show full news feed →" in Slack to expand.

Sell-Side Changes on Coverage Overnight

Every rating change, PT change, and EPS revision on names you hold

Time	Ticker	Firm \| Analyst	Change type	From	To	Δ	ABI commentary
05:14	NVDA	Mizuho \| Rakesh	Rating + PT	Favorable $1,200	Neutral $1,050	−12.5%	Outlier; ABI maintains Buy/$1,180. Pre-print defensive note.
04:38	AVGO	Morgan Stanley \| Moore	PT	$1,820	$2,050	+12.6%	Aligned with ABI thesis. ASIC tailwind quantified.
04:22	AMD	Bank of America \| Arya	PT	$185	$215	+16.2%	MI400 ramp expectations raised. Constructive.
04:08	UNH	Leerink \| Larsen	Rating	Outperform	Market Perform	DG	Linked to DOJ widening. Aligned with our Trim rec.
03:54	JPM	Wells Fargo \| Mayo	EPS '26	$18.42	$18.80	+2.1%	NII upside on rate path. Mild positive.
03:42	LLY	Jefferies \| Yee	PT	$880	$845	−4.0%	Reflects JAMA real-world data. Minor.
03:28	RTX	Cowen \| Liwag	Rating	MP	Outperform	UG	Pratt fix progress. Constructive; aligned w/ ABI Buy.
03:14	MP	Goldman Sachs \| Singer	PT	$28	$36	+28.6%	Reflects DoE List 2026 update expectation Jun 10.
02:48	NFLX	Pivotal \| Wlodarczak	PT	$760	$820	+7.9%	Ad-tier ARPU revision +18%. Aligned with ABI thesis.

Insider Filings on Coverage

Last 24h, Form 4 only

Ticker	Insider	Action	Shares	$ value	Plan
MTRN	Shelly Chadwick (CFO)	Favorable	5,000	$912K	Open market
MSFT	Amy Hood (CFO)	Unfavorable	12,400	$5.8M	10b5-1 plan (filed 2025-09-14)

Options Flow Anomalies

Skew shifts, vol spikes, large blocks on coverage

Ticker	Anomaly	Detail	Strength
NVDA	25Δ put skew ↑	+5.2 vol O/N \| earnings IV +12pts	★★★★
MTRN	Call vol spike ↑	$200C Jun: 4,200 contracts (vs 412 ADV)	★★★★
DJT	Put OI ↑	$22P Jul: +18K OI overnight	★★★
UNH	IV30 ↑	28% → 38% on DOJ news	★★★
AMD	Block trade	3.4M shares cross @ $148.20 (4:08 AM)	★★
BYND	Borrow rate ↑	+185bps overnight (now HTB)	★★★

Pre-Market Movers in Coverage live | 6:32 AM ET

Names moving >1% in pre-market with attribution

Top movers UP

Pre-market

Ticker	Last	% Δ	Why
AVGO	$1,742	+3.4%	MS PT raise + ASIC supply check
AMD	$152.40	+2.8%	BofA PT raise + block trade
MP	$33.12	+2.9%	GS PT raise on DoE catalyst
RTX	$128.40	+1.8%	Cowen upgrade
LMT	$498.40	+1.6%	F-35 IDIQ award
NFLX	$748	+1.4%	Pivotal PT raise on ad-tier

Top movers DOWN

Pre-market

Ticker	Last	% Δ	Why
UNH	$482	−4.8%	DOJ widening + Leerink DG
NVDA	$874	−1.8%	Mizuho DG ahead of earnings
PTON	$3.84	−12.4%	RIF + Q1 pre-announce
CVNA	$214	−4.2%	WSJ ADESA delay story
TSLA	$262	−1.6%	Berlin Giga grid event
LLY	$818	−1.2%	JAMA real-world data

Macro / Sector Overnight

SPX Futures

5,824

−0.18% | −10.4

NDX Futures

20,148

−0.32% | −64.8

RUT Futures

2,184

+0.12% | +2.6

VIX

14.84

+4.2% | +0.60

UST 10Y

4.18%

+2.4bp

UST 2Y

3.84%

+1.8bp

DXY

104.82

+0.18%

EUR / USD

1.0814

−0.14%

USD / JPY

156.42

+0.32%

WTI Crude

$78.42

+0.84%

Gold

$2,648

+0.42%

Copper

$4.82

+1.18%

Asia close

Nikkei +0.84%; TOPIX +0.62%; Hang Seng −0.18%; Shanghai Comp flat. Yen weakening through 156 on BOJ silence; intervention chatter. Chinese property names extended; HK biotech weak. Tech mixed: TSM +1.2%, Samsung Elec +0.4%.

Europe open

DAX −0.24%; CAC −0.18%; SX5E −0.20%. ECB speakers (Lane 9am, Lagarde 10am) on tap. Bund yield 2.42% +1bp. Defense names firm on Pentagon F-35 IDIQ news bleeding through. Luxury soft on China.

US event risk today

FOMC minutes 2:00 PM ET | Powell speaks Thurs 10 AM | 5y Treasury auction 1 PM ($70B). Memorial Day-week thin liquidity. SPX 0DTE pin level around 5,840.

Today's Catalysts on Coverage

Every earnings print, Fed event, and economic data release that hits your book today

Time

Event

Affects

Note

08:30 AM

Consumer Confidence | May | cons 96.4 vs prior 97.5

DLTR, WMT

Discretionary read; soft print extends Trim DLTR signal

10:00 AM

New Home Sales | Apr | cons 685K SAAR

homebuilder ETF (not direct)

No direct exposure; indirect rate sensitivity

11:00 AM

Dallas Fed Manufacturing | cons −10.2

Industrial complex read-through

Watch as a tell for industrials Q2 prints

01:00 PM

5y Treasury auction | $70B

Rates read-through

Watch BTC; soft auction = duration weakness

02:00 PM

FOMC Minutes | May 2 meeting

All risk assets

Hawkish surprise risk; Powell's "patient" stance under question

04:05 PM

NVDA Q1 FY27 earnings | AMC | cons $0.80 / $43.2B

NVDA (5.2% – LARGEST LONG)

Position is firm's largest; ABI rec HOLD into print, do not size up

04:10 PM

MTRN Q1 2026 earnings | AMC | cons EPS $1.18

MTRN (2.8%)

CFO insider buy bullish tell; watch Q4 GM rebound

04:15 PM

NVO Q1 2026 earnings | AMC | cons EPS DKK 6.42

NVO (1.4%)

Ozempic / Wegovy supply chain commentary key

04:35 PM

JPM dividend ex-date | $1.40 quarterly

JPM (2.1%)

Mechanical; ~10c price adjustment

Brief delivered

6:32:14 AM ET

Generation time

4 min 18 sec

Sources scanned

1,247

Coverage processed

70 positions

Cost basis

$0.84

Next brief

Wed May 27 06:30 AM

Generated by ABI-Bot v4.2 | escalation: PM-On-Call @rahul | for clarifications or coverage additions, message @abi-desk in Slack