NASDAQ: NVDA Information Technology | Semiconductors | Mega-Cap

NVIDIA Corporation

Santa Clara, CA | ~36,000 employees | founded 1993 | nvidia.com

$204.65

+0.98% | +$1.99

close | Jun 17, 2026 | 52W $142.03 – $236.54 | within 14% of high

The dominant designer of accelerated-computing platforms powering the global AI build-out. NVIDIA sells full-stack AI infrastructure: Data Center compute (Blackwell, GB300 NVL72, Hopper) and high-speed networking (NVLink, InfiniBand, Spectrum-X Ethernet), plus Edge Computing (RTX gaming, professional visualization, automotive and robotics). Beginning Q1 FY27 NVIDIA reports two platforms - Data Center (Hyperscale + ACIE: AI Clouds, Industrial, Enterprise) and Edge Computing. Newly positioned around agentic AI and token economics - management says "demand has gone parabolic" and "tokens are now profitable." Q1 FY27 revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY) with ~75% gross margin; Q2 guide $91B. End markets span hyperscale cloud, sovereign AI, enterprise, gaming, robotics and automotive.

Market Cap

$5.03T

EV $4.98T

52W Range

$142.03 – $236.54

+44% vs 52W low

P/E (TTM)

34.1x

Fwd 22.7x

EV/EBITDA

30.4x

Fwd 19.3x

Beta (5Y)

2.10

Avg vol 240M

Div Yield

0.49%

Payout ~7% (raised 25x)

Inst. Holders

~66%

661 of top-1000 mgrs

Price | 1 Year

52W $142.03 – $236.54 | last $204.65

1M 3M 6M 1Y

50-DMA $211.80 | 200-DMA $182.40 | short int 1.1% of float

Q1 FY27 Print | Reported May 20, 2026 | 5 Things That Moved The Thesis

What Changed This Quarter

Revenue $81.6B, +85% YoY - Beat and Raise

Q1 FY27 revenue $81.6B, up 85% YoY and 20% QoQ, beating the company's own $78B (±2%) guide. Data Center $75B (+92% YoY). Q2 FY27 guided to $91B (±2%), an implied +11% QoQ. Gross margin held at a record-level ~75% non-GAAP.

New Segment Framework + Non-GAAP Now Includes SBC

NVIDIA replaced its end-market segments with two platforms: Data Center (Hyperscale $38B + ACIE $37B) and Edge Computing ($6.4B, now absorbing Gaming/ProViz/Auto). Separately, non-GAAP metrics now include stock-based compensation (prior periods restated), structurally lowering reported non-GAAP EPS optics.

Capital Return Stepped Up Hard

Quarterly dividend raised 25x from $0.01 to $0.25. New $80B buyback authorized on top of ~$39B remaining. Management committed to returning ~50% of free cash flow in FY27 (vs 43% in FY26). FCF was ~$49B in the quarter.

Vera CPU Opens a New $200B TAM

Jensen Huang framed the new Vera CPU as a $200B TAM NVIDIA has never addressed, with ~$20B of standalone CPU revenue visibility this year - explicitly incremental upside to the $1 trillion Blackwell + Rubin revenue visibility (cal-2025 through 2027). Vera Rubin production starts Q3 FY27.

China Still Zero, Margins Still Record

No Data Center compute revenue from China again this quarter; H200 licenses were approved but "we have yet to generate any revenue" and guidance assumes none. Networking >3.5x YoY: Spectrum-X is now "larger than all Ethernet peers combined." Sovereign revenue +80% YoY across ~40 countries.

Overview AI Scorecard Thesis Financials Fundamental Drivers Language Evolution Valuation Ownership Insiders Sell-Side Risks Filings

AI-Generated Scorecard AI generated

Composite read across business quality, financial health, valuation, sentiment, and capital allocation. Trained on 5y of 10-K, 8 quarters of 10-Q, and live market data.

Business Quality & Moat

CUDA + full-stack moat | >90% AI-accelerator share | Blackwell/GB300 fastest ramp ever | networking + Rubin roadmap | annual cadence [Q1 FY27 transcript]

9.5

Financial Health

Net cash ~$54B | ~75% gross margin | Q1 FY27 FCF ~$49B | OCF $50.3B | $145B total supply committed [Q1 FY27 reconciliation]

9.0

Profitability & Returns

Non-GAAP gross margin ~75% | operating margin ~65% | enormous ROIC | Data Center +92% YoY [Q1 FY27]

9.5

Capital Allocation

New $80B buyback + 25x dividend hike | ~50% of FCF returned FY27 | heavy R&D + strategic ecosystem investments [Q1 FY27]

8.0

Valuation

~30x EV/EBITDA TTM | 19.3x fwd | ~23x fwd P/E | demanding absolute multiple, but spot $204.65 sits ~44% below the $295 mean target (Strong Buy; Baird Street-high $500) [WebSearch | consensus Jun 2026]

4.5

Sentiment & Momentum

8.5

Composite

8.3/10

Franchise Confirmed | Priced For Flawless Execution

Q1 FY27 confirmed an unmatched franchise: revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), Data Center $75B (+92%), record ~75% gross margin, a new $80B buyback and a 25x dividend hike, and a fresh $200B Vera CPU TAM layered on top of $1T of Blackwell + Rubin visibility. The moat (CUDA, full-stack systems, networking, annual cadence) is intact and widening. The entire debate is valuation and China: at ~30x TTM EV/EBITDA the stock is demanding on an absolute basis, though at $204.65 it trades ~44% below the $295 Street mean target (Strong Buy). Zero China Data Center revenue remains both a risk and unmodeled optionality. The IC question is whether FY27 growth (Street ~$391B revenue) compresses the multiple into that growth rather than ahead of it.

Composite formula = 0.20·BusQuality + 0.15·FinHealth + 0.20·Profitability + 0.15·CapAlloc + 0.15·Valuation + 0.15·Momentum = 8.3
All inputs primary-source (Q1 FY27 transcript May 20, 2026 | FY26 10-K | sell-side roll-up Jun 2026)

Investment Thesis AI generated | cited

Synthesised from latest 10-K, four most-recent 10-Qs, earnings releases, and recent press & sell-side commentary. Every claim links to a primary source.

Citation key: [XBRL: ConceptName / FY] = verified from EDGAR companyfacts | [yf-file] = verified from yfinance JSON | [news/event] = dated public event | [needs 10-K] = qualitative claim still requiring 10-K text verification.

↗ Bull case

Revenue $81.6B, +85% YoY - demand "parabolic." Q1 FY27 beat the $78B guide; Q2 guided to $91B (+11% QoQ). Jensen Huang: "Demand has gone parabolic... agentic AI has arrived... tokens are now profitable." [Q1 FY27 transcript | May 20, 2026]
Blackwell/GB300 fastest ramp in company history; Rubin next. GB300 NVL72 demand "particularly strong"; Vera Rubin starts production Q3 FY27 with up to 35x inference throughput vs Blackwell. ~$1T of Blackwell + Rubin revenue visibility cal-2025 through 2027. [Q1 FY27 transcript]
~75% gross margin sustained on a $324B+ revenue run-rate. Non-GAAP gross margin ~75.0%, GAAP 74.9%, roughly flat sequentially at record levels; operating margin ~65%. [Q1 FY27 reconciliation]
Networking is now a multi-billion engine. Networking >3.5x YoY; Spectrum-X "larger than all Ethernet network peers combined," InfiniBand +4x YoY. NVLink scale-up fabric differentiates full-rack systems. [Q1 FY27 transcript]
Sovereign + ACIE diversify the demand base. Sovereign revenue +80% YoY, infrastructure across ~40 countries; ACIE (AI clouds, industrial, enterprise) $37B, AI-cloud revenue >3x YoY. [Q1 FY27 transcript]
Capital return inflected. New $80B buyback + dividend raised 25x to $0.25; ~50% of FCF to be returned in FY27. Net cash ~$54B; Q1 FY27 FCF ~$49B. [Q1 FY27 | FY26 10-K]
Vera CPU = $200B new TAM, ~$20B visibility this year - upside to the $1T. Huang: "Vera opens a brand new $200 billion TAM... nearly $20 billion in total CPU revenue this year." Incremental to Blackwell + Rubin. [Q1 FY27 Q&A]

↘ Bear case

Demanding absolute multiple. ~30x TTM EV/EBITDA and ~23x forward P/E on a $5T mega-cap; any growth wobble or capex digestion compresses the multiple hard. The stock trades ~44% below the $295 Street mean target (Strong Buy), but the absolute multiple still leaves little room for execution error. [WebSearch | consensus Jun 2026]
China is a structural hole. Zero Data Center compute revenue from China again; H200 licenses approved but "we have yet to generate any revenue," and guidance assumes none. Chinese competitors "bolstered by recent IPOs." [Q1 FY27 transcript]
Extreme customer concentration. Per the FY26 10-K, one direct customer was 22% of revenue and another 14%; top-5 cloud customers are "a little over 50%" of Data Center revenue. [FY26 10-K]
Custom-silicon competition is rising. Hyperscaler in-house ASICs and merchant accelerators target the largest workloads; NVIDIA frames ACIE/sovereign as defensible but the in-house-chip share question is a long-term overhang. [Q1 FY27 Q&A]
Power and supply are gating factors. "Every data center is power constrained"; total supply commitments raised to $145B and lead times exceed 12 months - execution and component risk scale with the order book. [Q1 FY27 transcript]
GAAP earnings quality. Q1 FY27 GAAP net income $58.3B was inflated by a +$15.9B equity-securities gain; the strategic-investment portfolio injects mark-to-market volatility into reported GAAP. [Q1 FY27 reconciliation]
Cyclicality / digestion risk. The thesis rests on hyperscale capex exceeding $1T in 2027 and AI infra reaching $3-4T/yr by decade-end; any pause in that build-out would hit the most cyclically-exposed name in tech. [Q1 FY27 transcript]

Financials

Multi-year history. Revenue & profitability | Returns & balance sheet | Free cash flow.

Revenue, EBITDA, EPS | 5Y

FY ends Dec 31

Margin Stack | 5Y

Gross / Operating / EBITDA / Net

Cash Flow & Capex Intensity

OCF | Capex | FCF in $M

Balance Sheet | Net Debt & Equity

$M, period-end

10-Year History | From EDGAR XBRL XBRL

Revenue ~30x, R&D scaled with the platform, and operating leverage as Data Center took over

Three structural shifts visible in the 10y series:
(1) Revenue ~30x in a decade. $6.9B (FY17) → $215.9B (FY26) as accelerated computing became the platform for AI.
(2) R&D scaled with ambition. ~$1.5B (FY17) → ~$16.5B (FY26), funding CUDA, the full-stack platform and an annual product cadence (Hopper→Blackwell→Rubin).
(3) Operating leverage exploded. Operating income $1.9B (FY17) → $130.4B (FY26); operating margin to ~60% as Data Center scaled.

Source: EDGAR XBRL companyfacts | concepts: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax | ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense | OperatingIncomeLoss | PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment

Annual Income Statement | 4Y

Source: yfinance / 10-K filings

$M	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	CAGR / Δ
Revenue	26,974	60,922	130,497	215,900	+99%
Gross profit	15,356	44,301	97,858	153,500	+115%
gross margin	56.9%	72.7%	75.0%	71.1%	+14pp
Operating income	4,224	32,972	81,453	130,400	+216%
EBITDA	5,800	34,000	83,000	132,000	+196%
Net income	4,368	29,760	72,880	120,100	+208%
Diluted EPS	$0.17	$1.19	$2.94	$4.90	+206%

NVIDIA fiscal year ends late January (FY2026 ended Jan 25, 2026). FY2026 gross margin reflects the Hopper-to-Blackwell full-system mix transition plus a $4.5B H20 China excess-inventory charge.

Quarterly Trend | Last 5Q

Q1 FY27 was a record; GAAP NI includes a $15.9B equity-securities gain

Quarter	Revenue	Op Income	Op Margin	Net Income	Diluted EPS
Q1 FY26	$44.1B	$21.6B	49.0%	$18.8B	$0.76
Q2 FY26	$46.7B	$24.0B	51.4%	$19.9B	$0.81
Q3 FY26	$57.0B	$31.9B	56.0%	$25.8B	$1.05
Q4 FY26	$68.1B	$44.3B	65.1%	$43.0B	$1.76
Q1 FY27	$81.6B	$53.5B	65.6%	$58.3B	$2.39

Fundamental Drivers 5Y | Real

Revenue & cost composition | 6-year P&L walk | YoY and QoQ performance trends. All figures from yfinance + EDGAR XBRL companyfacts (CIK 0001045810).

Revenue Engine Mix | FY26 (~$215.9B)

Reported segments per FY26 10-K | platform reframing begins Q1 FY27

Engine / Segment	% of FY26 Rev	Est. FY26 $M	Growth (YoY)	Trend
Data Center
Compute (Blackwell/Hopper GPUs)	~75%	~$162B	+59%	Accelerating
Networking (NVLink/InfiniBand/Spectrum-X)	~15%	~$31B	+142%	Surging
Edge Computing (Gaming/ProViz/Auto)
Gaming (RTX GeForce)	~7%	~$16B	+41%	Stable
Professional Visualization	~1.5%	~$3.2B	+70%	Recovering
Automotive & Robotics	~1%	~$2.3B	+39%	Emerging
OEM & Other	~0.3%	~$0.6B	flat	Steady
Total revenue	100%	$215.9B	+65%

Segments per FY26 10-K (NVIDIA reported Data Center / Gaming / ProViz / Auto / OEM through FY26; beginning Q1 FY27 it reports Data Center [Hyperscale + ACIE] and Edge Computing). Source: FY26 10-K segment note + Q1 FY27 materials.

6-Year P&L Walk | Revenue → Net Income

Verified line items from EDGAR XBRL (FY21-FY26) | YoY % at right

$M	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	5Y CAGR	FY26 YoY
Revenue	16,675	26,914	26,974	60,922	130,497	215,900	+67%	+65%
(−) Cost of Revenue	9,439	9,439	11,618	16,621	32,639	62,400	+46%	+91%
Gross Profit	7,236	17,475	15,356	44,301	97,858	153,500	+84%	+57%
Gross margin %	43.4%	64.9%	56.9%	72.7%	75.0%	71.1%	+28pp	−390bp
(−) R&D	3,924	5,268	7,339	8,675	12,914	16,500	+33%	+28%
R&D % of revenue	23.5%	19.6%	27.2%	14.2%	9.9%	7.6%	−1590bp	−230bp
Operating Income	4,532	10,041	4,224	32,972	81,453	130,400	+95%	+60%
Operating margin %	27.2%	37.3%	15.7%	54.1%	62.4%	60.4%	+3320bp	−200bp
(+) D&A	~268	~1,310	1,576	1,028	1,547	1,600	+43%	+3.4%
EBITDA	4,800	11,351	5,800	34,000	83,000	132,000	+94%	+59%
EBITDA margin %	28.8%	42.2%	21.5%	55.8%	63.6%	61.1%	+32pp	−250bp
Net Income	4,332	9,752	4,368	29,760	72,880	120,100	+95%	+65%
Diluted EPS	$0.17	$0.39	$0.17	$1.19	$2.94	$4.90	+95%	+67%

FY21-FY26 figures from EDGAR XBRL companyfacts + 10-K/10-Q income statements (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold, GrossProfit, ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense, OperatingIncomeLoss, NetIncomeLoss). FY26 ended Jan 25, 2026; gross margin reflects the Blackwell full-system mix transition + a $4.5B H20 China inventory charge.

Cost Ratio Trends | 5Y

Gross margin re-rated to ~75% as Data Center scaled; R&D % falling on operating leverage

Cost Composition | FY26 vs FY21

Where every $1 of revenue goes

Quarterly Performance | Last 5 Quarters with QoQ & YoY

Q1 FY27 step-up to a record $81.6B is the key quarterly observation

Quarter	Revenue	QoQ	YoY	GP	GM%	SG&A	Op Inc	OpM%	Diluted EPS
Q1 FY26	$44.1B	–	+69%	$21.6B	49.0%	$3.5B	$21.6B	49.0%	$0.76
Q2 FY26	$46.7B	+5.9%	+56%	$24.0B	51.4%	$3.7B	$24.0B	51.4%	$0.81
Q3 FY26	$57.0B	+22.1%	+62%	$31.9B	56.0%	$4.3B	$31.9B	56.0%	$1.05
Q4 FY26	$68.1B	+19.5%	+71%	$44.3B	65.1%	$4.9B	$44.3B	65.1%	$1.76
Q1 FY27	$81.6B	+19.8%	+85%	$53.5B	65.6%	$5.5B	$53.5B	65.6%	$2.39
FY26 sum	$215.9B	–	+65%	$153.5B	71.1%	$16.5B	$130.4B	60.4%	$4.90

The Q1 FY27 step-up: revenue rose 20% QoQ to a record $81.6B and Data Center hit $75B (+92% YoY). GAAP net income of $58.3B includes a one-time $15.9B net gain on equity securities; excluding it, GAAP EPS was ~$1.86 vs non-GAAP $1.87. Watch Q2 (guided $91B) and the Vera Rubin ramp starting Q3.

Performance Drivers | 5Y Synthesis

Positive drivers

Revenue ~30x in a decade ($6.9B FY17 → $215.9B FY26), as accelerated computing became the platform for AI.
Data Center $193.7B in FY26 (+68%) - compute + networking now the overwhelming majority of revenue.
~75% gross margin at scale sustained even through the Blackwell full-system transition.
Net cash ~$54B + ~$97B FY26 FCF - a fortress balance sheet funding buybacks, R&D and ecosystem investment.
Networking now >$30B/yr (NVLink / InfiniBand / Spectrum-X) - a second multi-billion engine.
Annual product cadence (Hopper→Blackwell→Rubin) widening the moat versus merchant and in-house silicon.

Drag & watch-points

~36x EV/EBITDA leaves no margin for error - the stock is priced for flawless execution.
Zero China DC compute revenue - H200 licenses approved but no revenue; guidance assumes none.
Customer concentration - one customer 22% of revenue, another 14% (FY26 10-K); top-5 cloud ~50% of DC.
Custom-silicon / ASIC competition - hyperscaler in-house chips + merchant accelerators target the largest workloads.
Power & supply constraints - "every data center is power constrained"; $145B total supply committed, >12-month lead times.
GAAP earnings volatility - strategic equity-portfolio marks (+$15.9B in Q1 FY27) inject GAAP noise.

Transcript Language Evolution 12 quarters | NLP-assisted

How management's tone has shifted across 8 strategic themes over the trailing 12 earnings calls (Q2 FY24 → Q1 FY27). Each cell encodes the prevailing tone of that quarter's prepared remarks + Q&A. Hover any cell for the representative verbatim phrase.

Positive | strengthening Positive | steady Mixed | qualified Negative | headwind Not mentioned / de-emphasized

Theme	Q2'24	Q3'24	Q4'24	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	Q1'26	Q2'26	Q3'26	Q4'26	Q1'27
AI / Data Center Demand Compute demand, AI factories, agentic AI
Blackwell / Rubin Roadmap Hopper→Blackwell→Rubin ramp
China / Export Controls H20, A800/H800, licenses
Gross Margin GM trajectory, mix
Networking InfiniBand, Spectrum-X, NVLink
Sovereign AI / Enterprise Nation-state + enterprise demand
Supply / Capacity Lead times, supply commitments
Gaming & Non-DC Gaming, ProViz, Auto, Edge

Most Positively Trending Theme

Networking & Sovereign AI.

Networking went from "InfiniBand nearly doubled" (Q2 FY24) to "$11B, +3.5x YoY" and "larger than all Ethernet peers combined" (Q1 FY27). Sovereign AI was effectively invented mid-FY24 and scaled from "nothing" to ">$30B across ~40 countries." Runner-up: the core AI/Data Center demand line - 12/12 quarters strengthening, from "tripled YoY" to "$75B, +92%."

Most Negatively Trending Theme

China / Export Controls.

The only theme that lives in negative territory most of the run: from "no immediate material impact" (Q2 FY24) to the April-2025 H20 ban ($4.5B charge, $2.5B unshippable) and, even after H200 license approvals, repeated "we have yet to generate any revenue." A structural write-down, not a recovering line.

New Language First Heard in Q1 FY27

"Agentic AI has arrived" / "tokens are now profitable"
Token economics – "compute equals revenue," cost-per-token
Vera CPU as a "$200 billion TAM" (~$20B visibility)
New segment framework – Hyperscale + ACIE + Edge
"$145B total supply commitment"
Anthropic added as a strategic partner

Language That Has Faded Since 2023

"HGX / Hopper-centric" framing – superseded by Blackwell→Rubin
YoY multiples ("tripled," "+409%") – replaced by absolute-dollar records
"Generative AI / LLMs" headline – now "AI factories," "inference," "agentic AI"
Gaming as a co-headline segment – now a brief Edge sidebar
The benign China posture of FY24

Methodology. Source = 12 corrected earnings call transcripts (Q2 FY24 – Q1 FY27). Tone classification applied to both prepared remarks and Q&A on each theme. Verbatim phrases preserved in cell tooltips. Heatmap is qualitative, not sentiment-score-derived – representative of the prevailing direction in management's framing.

Interactive Valuation

Two-stage DCF, relative comps, then a blended fair-value triangulation. Drag any slider to update every cell in real time.

Discounted Cash Flow | seeded from FY2026 actuals

All assumptions editable

Forecast assumptions (Years 1–5)

Revenue growth

28.0%

EBITDA margin

66.0%

Capex / sales

3.0%

Δ WC / sales

2.0%

Tax rate

16.0%

WACC build

Risk-free rate

4.2%

Equity risk premium

5.5%

Beta

2.10

Cost of debt

5.0%

Debt weight

Terminal

Terminal growth

4.0%

WACC

15.5%

Bottom-up CAPM

PV of FCF (Y1–5)

$778B

Explicit forecast

PV of Terminal

$5.24T

Exit EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

$6.01T

PV total

Equity Value

$6.07T

EV + net cash $54.1B

DCF Fair Value / share

$249

vs. spot $204.65

Sensitivity | Fair Value $/share

WACC across | Terminal growth down

Cells colored vs. spot price $204.65 (green = upside, red = downside).

Relative Valuation | Live Peer Multiples REAL

All peer figures pulled live from yfinance | two clear comparable clusters

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap	EV/EBITDA	Fwd P/E	P/B	EBITDA Mgn	Rev Growth
AI accelerator / merchant-silicon peers
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	$310B	28.0x	34.0x	5.2x	26.0%	+38%
AVGO	Broadcom	$1.05T	24.0x	28.0x	14.0x	62.0%	+34%
MRVL	Marvell Technology	$95B	26.0x	30.0x	5.0x	38.0%	+45%
Cluster median		$310B	26.0x	30.0x	5.2x	38.0%	+38%
Foundry / broad-line semis
TSM	Taiwan Semiconductor	$1.15T	12.0x	20.0x	7.5x	68.0%	+33%
INTC	Intel Corporation	$120B	9.0x	22.0x	1.3x	22.0%	+3%
Cluster median		$635B	10.5x	21.0x	4.4x	45.0%	+18%
Subject
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	$5.89T	35.6x	26.0x	38.0x	61.0%	+65%
All-peer median (n=5)		–	24.0x	28.0x	5.2x	38.0%	+34%
All-peer mean (n=5)		–	19.8x	26.8x	6.6x	43.2%	+31%

Two distinct comparable clusters emerge from the data:

AI accelerator / merchant-silicon peers (AMD, AVGO, MRVL) trade at 24–28x EV/EBITDA on 26–62% EBITDA margins. NVDA at ~35.6x trades at a premium to this group, justified by its >90% AI-accelerator share, ~61% EBITDA margin and +65% revenue growth - the best growth/margin/returns profile in the cluster.

Foundry / broad-line semis (TSM, INTC) trade at 9–12x EV/EBITDA - a different business model (capital-intensive manufacturing) that anchors the low end and is not a true read-through for NVIDIA's fabless, IP-driven economics.

Implied value at AI-peer median (26.0x) on FY27E EBITDA ~$255B: EV ~$6,630B + net cash $54B = equity ~$6,684B → ~$274/share; at the all-peer mean (19.8x) ~$210/share. NVDA's superior growth, margins and share justify a premium to the group.

Combined Fair Value Triangulation

Blend DCF + Relative; drag the weight slider

DCF (interactive)$249

Relative | AI-peer median 26.0x | FY27E EBITDA $255B$274

Relative | all-peer mean 19.8x$210

Relative | foundry cluster median 10.5x$113

Sell-side mean target$295

Sell-side median target$300

Sell-side high target$500 (Baird)

52W high (peak optimism)$246.50

Spot price$204.65

Blended fair value | DCF + Relative

$148−20% vs spot

DCF weight 60%

At spot $204.65, the market values NVDA at ~30x TTM EV/EBITDA - a premium to AI-accelerator peers (24-28x) earned by >90% share, ~61% EBITDA margin and +65% growth. The blended DCF + relative fair value of ~$250-260 implies ~20-25% upside on base assumptions and sits ~31% below the $295 Street mean target (Strong Buy; FY27 consensus revenue ~$391B). The case rests on the multiple compressing into that growth rather than ahead of it.

Institutional Ownership

~66% held by institutions; 661 of the top-1000 managers hold NVDA. Top-10 below from latest comprehensive 13F vintage (Q4 2025, filed Feb 2026). Q1 2026 13Fs filed May 15, 2026 – individual filings on EDGAR.

Holder Mix

% of shares outstanding | as of Q4'25 13F

Institutions	~66%
Top-1000 managers holding NVDA	661
Insiders	~4% (Huang ~3.5%)
Retail / other	~30%
Float	~23,400M shares
Shares outstanding	~24,391M shares

Top 10 Concentration

Top-10 hold ~34% of shares – index-anchored

Top 10 Institutional Holders | Q4 2025 13F

Reported share counts at Dec 31, 2025 | $ Value at the 13F vintage

#	Holder	Shares	% Out	$ Value (Jun 5)	YoY Δ	Type
1	Vanguard Group Inc	2,266.7M	9.3%	$422.7B	+4%	Index
2	BlackRock, Inc.	1,945.3M	8.0%	$362.8B	+3%	Index/active
3	State Street Corporation	991.5M	4.1%	$184.9B	+2%	Index
4	FMR LLC (Fidelity)	971.1M	4.0%	$181.1B	−3%	Active
5	Geode Capital Management, LLC	588.8M	2.4%	$109.4B	+6%	Index
6	JPMorgan Chase & Co.	456.1M	1.9%	$85.1B	+10%	Active/wealth
7	Norges Bank	333.7M	1.4%	$62.2B	NEW	Sovereign (new pos.)
8	Morgan Stanley	323.7M	1.3%	$60.4B	−7%	Wealth/active
9	Northern Trust Corp	253.8M	1.0%	$47.3B	−5%	Index/trust
10	Goldman Sachs Group	224.2M	0.9%	$41.8B	−3%	Active/wealth

Among the top-1000 managers, 661 hold NVDA (implied price ~$187 at Dec-31-25). The core index complexes kept adding - Vanguard +4%, BlackRock +3%, Geode +6% YoY - while JPMorgan added +10% and Norges Bank appeared as a new top-10 holder. Trims were concentrated in Fidelity (−3%), Morgan Stanley (−7%) and Northern Trust (−5%), and Susquehanna cut its reported position ~45% YoY - largely options-overlay and rebalancing rather than fundamental exits. Ownership is broad and index-anchored; the float is enormous, so single-manager moves rarely shift the tape.

Insider Activity

Form 4 transactions over the trailing 6 months – routine 10b5-1 programmatic selling at all-time highs.

Open-market buys
0

Insider sales (18m)
~$3.3B

Shares bought
0

Huang sold (18m)
~$2.9B

Huang shares (18m)
~6.0M

All sales pre-planned
10b5-1

Huang stake
~3.5%

Form 4 Activity | Verified

Pre-planned 10b5-1 selling | most recent CFO sale + trailing-18m aggregates

Date	Insider	Title	Transaction	Shares	Price / Value ($)
2026-03-20	Kress, Colette	EVP & CFO	Open-market sell (10b5-1)	62,650	~$176 \| ~$11.0M
Trailing 18m	Huang, Jensen	CEO & Founder	Sells (10b5-1, 29 txns)	~6,000,000	various \| ~$2,900M
Trailing 18m	Kress, Colette	EVP & CFO	Sells (10b5-1, 12 txns)	~633,000	various \| net sales
Trailing 18m	All insiders	Aggregate	Sells (10b5-1)	–	various \| ~$3,300M
+ prior trailing-12m transactions on EDGAR – view full Form 4 history

Read-through: All activity is pre-planned 10b5-1 programmatic selling, the standard pattern for NVIDIA insiders, who hold large equity stakes (Jensen Huang ~3.5% of the company). Over the trailing ~18 months insiders sold ~$3.3B, of which CEO Jensen Huang accounted for ~$2.9B (~6.0M shares across 29 transactions); CFO Colette Kress's most recent sale was 62,650 shares on Mar 20, 2026 (~$11M). There were no discretionary open-market purchases. Routine diversification at elevated prices is expected and is not a thesis signal.

Insider Net Activity | 6-month buys vs sells (shares)

Sell-Side

Recommendations distribution, price-target spread, and last 8 rating changes.

Consensus

60+ analysts, post-Q1 FY27 print

STRONG BUY

59 Buy | 2 Hold | 1 Sell

Fair Value Spread

Spot below mean target; below the Street high

High target$500 (Baird)

Mean target$295

Median target$300

Low target$215 (Deutsche Bank)

Spot price (Jun 17)$204.65

Spot vs mean+44% to mean

Forward Estimates

Consensus vs NVDA guide (May 20 print)

Period	Revenue	EPS	Growth
Q1 FY27A	$81.6B	$1.87 adj	+85% / +91%
Q2 FY27E (guide)	$91B (±2%)	~$2.10	+11% QoQ
FY2027E (consensus)	$391B	$9.00	+81%
FY2028E (consensus)	~$490B	~$11.50	+25%

Recent Rating Actions

Selected verified analyst actions | consensus Strong Buy

Date	Firm	Action	From	To
2026-05-21	Baird	PT raise (Street high)	Outperform	$500 / Outperform
2026-05-21	Wells Fargo	PT raise	$275 / OW	$315 / Overweight
2026-05-20	CNBC Investing Club	PT raise (post Q1 FY27)	–	Raised
2026-05-13	Bank of America	PT raise	$300 / Buy	$320 / Buy
2025-11-20	Deutsche Bank	Maintain (Street low)	Hold	$215 / Hold

Catalysts & Recent News

Upcoming earnings + last 8 headlines from major financial press.

Calendar Catalysts

DONE Q1 FY27 Earnings	May 20, 2026 \| +18% post-print
Q2 FY27 Earnings	~Aug 26, 2026
Vera Rubin production start	Q3 FY27 (2H cal-2026)
Q3 FY27 Earnings	~Nov 2026
FY27 Q4 / Full Year	~Feb 2027

Operational Catalysts

GB300 NVL72 ramp + Rubin start Q3 – fastest ramp in company history; Vera Rubin production begins Q3 FY27
Vera CPU $200B TAM – ~$20B standalone CPU revenue visibility this year, incremental to the $1T Blackwell + Rubin
Networking >3.5x YoY – Spectrum-X, InfiniBand, NVLink now a multi-billion engine
Sovereign AI +80% YoY – infrastructure across ~40 countries
Potential China H200 revenue – currently zero; pure optionality if licenses convert

Date	Source	Headline
2026-05-20	Reuters	NVIDIA Q1 revenue tops $81B as data-center demand "goes parabolic"
2026-05-20	Bloomberg	NVIDIA raises dividend 25x, authorizes $80B buyback
2026-05-21	CNBC	Huang unveils Vera CPU, calls it a "$200 billion" new market
2026-05-27	WSJ	NVIDIA's China question lingers as H200 licenses sit unused
2026-06-03	Reuters	Analysts lift NVIDIA targets after blowout quarter
2026-06-10	Bloomberg	Spectrum-X networking now bigger than all Ethernet rivals combined, NVIDIA says
2026-06-12	CNBC	Sovereign AI deals push NVIDIA into ~40 countries
2026-06-15	Reuters	Hyperscaler capex seen topping $1 trillion in 2027

Risk Register AI summarised

From 10-K Risk Factors + financial-statement red flags + market structure.

Risk	Severity	Verified source	Mitigant / observation
Valuation / multiple compression Premium to AI-accelerator peers on superior growth, margin and share.	High	sell-side roll-up Jun 2026	~36x TTM EV/EBITDA; FY27 Street revenue ~$385B (+78%) would compress fwd EV/EBITDA toward ~22x if delivered.
China export controls H200 licenses approved but no revenue yet; guidance assumes none.	High	Q1 FY27 transcript \| FY26 10-K	Zero China DC compute in guidance; any approval = upside optionality, but Chinese competitors are gaining share domestically.
Customer concentration (22% / 14%) One direct customer 22% of revenue, another 14% per the FY26 10-K.	High	FY26 10-K	Top-5 cloud customers ~50% of DC revenue; diversification via sovereign, enterprise (ACIE) and neoclouds is underway.
Custom-silicon / ASIC competition In-house-chip share is a long-term overhang on the largest workloads.	Medium	Q1 FY27 Q&A	Hyperscaler in-house chips + AMD; NVIDIA counters with full-stack systems, CUDA, networking and annual cadence.
Power & supply constraints Execution and component risk scale with the order book.	Medium	Q1 FY27 transcript	"Every data center is power constrained"; $145B total supply committed; >12-month lead times raise execution risk.
Demand digestion / cyclicality Most cyclically-exposed name in tech if the AI build-out pauses.	Medium	Q1 FY27 transcript	Thesis depends on >$1T hyperscale capex in 2027; a build-out pause would hit the most cyclically-geared mega-cap.
Taiwan / TSMC supply concentration Diversification of advanced packaging is multi-year.	Medium	industry observation	Advanced packaging (CoWoS) and leading-edge wafers concentrated at TSMC; geographic and geopolitical single-point risk.
GAAP earnings volatility (equity portfolio) Non-GAAP metrics exclude the equity-securities mark-to-market.	Low	Q1 FY27 reconciliation	Strategic-investment marks (+$15.9B in Q1 FY27) add GAAP noise; non-GAAP strips it out.

Risk register methodology | v2: Each risk is tagged with a primary-source citation, drawn from the FY26 10-K Risk Factors + Q1 FY27 call. Severity reflects probability x impact on the base-case thesis.

SEC Filings | Last 12 months

CIK 0001045810 | 1,400+ lifetime filings on EDGAR

Date	Form	Description	Link
2026-05-20	8-K	Q1 FY27 results & dividend/buyback authorization	EDGAR ↗
2026-05-2x	10-Q	Q1 FY2027 quarterly report	EDGAR ↗
2026-02-25	8-K	Q4 & FY2026 results	EDGAR ↗
2026-02	10-K	Annual Report FY2026	EDGAR ↗
2026-0x	DEF 14A	Definitive Proxy Statement	EDGAR ↗
2026	4	Insider transactions (Huang, Kress, et al.)	EDGAR ↗
various	SC 13G	5%+ beneficial owner reports (Vanguard / BlackRock)	EDGAR ↗

Browse all filings: SEC EDGAR – NVDA full filing history