NYSE: VST Utilities | Independent Power Producer | Large-Cap | Power-for-AI

Vistra Corp.

Irving, TX | ~6,500 employees | incorporated 2016 | vistracorp.com

$162.87

+0.30% | +$0.48

close | Jun 24, 2026 | 52W $132.66 – $219.82 | rating Buy, PT $230

The largest competitive power generator and retailer in the US, and the cleanest pure-play on Power-for-AI. Vistra runs a ~44 GW fleet (natural gas, the 2nd-largest US competitive nuclear fleet at ~6,448 MW, coal, solar and storage) across ERCOT, PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO and CAISO, paired with a ~5M-customer retail business (TXU). It has contracted ~3.8 GW of nuclear to hyperscalers (Meta ~2,600 MW at its PJM sites; Amazon 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak), the most of any US power company, and is adding ~5,500 MW of gas via the pending Cogentrix acquisition. Q1 2026 Ongoing Adjusted EBITDA was a record $1,494M (+20% YoY); 2026 guidance is $6.8–7.6B. Now investment grade at two agencies.

Market Cap

$55.4B

EV $77.3B

52W Range

$132.66 – $219.82

+23% vs 52W low

P/E (TTM)

27.2x

Fwd 15.9x

EV/EBITDA

21.3x

Fwd 9.8x

Beta (1Y)

0.55

Avg vol 4.8M

Div Yield

~0.6%

~$300M/yr target

Net Debt / EBITDA

~2.6x

IG, two agencies

Price | 1 Year

52W $132.66 – $219.82 | last $162.87

1M 3M 6M 1Y

Float 99% | avg vol 4.8M | consensus Buy, PT $230

Q1 2026 Print | Reported May 7, 2026 | 5 Things That Moved The Thesis

What Changed This Quarter

Record Q1 - Adjusted EBITDA $1,494M (+20% YoY)

A record calendar first quarter, up ~20% YoY and ~85% vs Q1 2024, through mild ERCOT weather and Winter Storm Fern. GAAP net income $1,029M vs a $(268)M loss a year ago; diluted EPS $2.87. 2026 guidance and the 2027 midpoint were reaffirmed.

Investment Grade at a Second Agency (Fitch)

Fitch upgraded the issuer rating to IG, joining S&P. This triggered collateral release on secured debt; Vistra issued $4.0B of new senior unsecured notes in April 2026 to refinance.

~3.8 GW Nuclear Contracted to Hyperscalers

Meta ~2,600 MW at PJM nuclear (Perry, Davis-Besse) + Amazon 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak - the most of any US power company, with ~3.2 GW of runway. None of the upside is in 2026 guidance.

Cogentrix (~5,500 MW Gas) On Track to Close 2H 2026

~$4.0B (~$730/kW, ~7.25x 2027 EBITDA); ~$2.3B cash + 5.0M shares at $185. Mid-single-digit FCF/share accretion in 2027; brings the combined-cycle gas fleet to ~26 GW. Excluded from guidance until close.

ERCOT Load-Growth Framing Nudged Up to 5-6%

Management now sees at least 5-6% annual ERCOT load growth through 2030 and argues forward curves don't reflect it - while flagging that data-center tightening "will not meaningfully begin until late 2027 or early 2028."

Overview AI Scorecard Thesis ABI Signals Financials Fundamental Drivers Language Evolution Valuation Ownership Insiders Sell-Side Risks Filings

AI-Generated Scorecard AI generated

Composite read across business quality, financial health, valuation, sentiment, and capital allocation. Trained on the FY2025 10-K, 13 quarters of transcripts, and live market data.

Business Quality & Moat

2nd-largest US competitive nuclear fleet (6,448 MW) + scarce dispatchable gas; integrated generation + ~5M-customer retail [FY25 10-K]

7.5

Financial Health

Investment grade at two agencies; ~2.6x net leverage toward ~2.3x by 2027; >$10B forward cash generation 2026-27 [Q1'26 release]

7.5

Profitability & Returns

~33% Ongoing Adj. EBITDA margin; targets 60%+ EBITDA-to-FCF conversion; nuclear PTC downside support [Q1'26]

7.0

Capital Allocation

~169M shares retired since 2021 at ~$37 avg (~30% of shares); ~$1.475B buyback left; accretive gas M&A [Q1'26]

8.0

Valuation

~9.8x fwd EV/EBITDA, ~16x fwd P/E; consensus Buy, PT ~$230 (+41% vs $162.87) - but the multiple already embeds the AI-power narrative [FactSet | consensus Jun 2026]

5.5

Power-for-AI Optionality

~3.8 GW contracted to hyperscalers - the most in the US - but modest vs the ~44 GW fleet; torque is power prices. See ABI Signals [ABI Signals]

7.0

Composite

7.1/10

Cash-Rich Compounder | AI-Power Optionality Largely Priced

Q1 2026 confirmed a high-quality, cash-generative franchise: record Adjusted EBITDA of $1,494M, reaffirmed $6.8-7.6B 2026 guidance, investment grade at two agencies, and ~169M shares retired since 2021. The Power-for-AI story is real - ~3.8 GW of nuclear contracted to Meta and Amazon, the most of any US power company - and the balance sheet and capital-return engine are strong. The debate is valuation and merchant-price risk: at ~9.8x forward EV/EBITDA with a Buy consensus and ~41% implied upside, much of the AI-power optionality is in the multiple, and EBITDA remains levered to power and gas curves. The ABI Signals panel quantifies that gap.

Composite = 0.20·BusQuality + 0.15·FinHealth + 0.15·Profitability + 0.15·CapAlloc + 0.15·Valuation + 0.20·Power-for-AI = 7.1
Inputs primary-source (Q1 2026 transcript May 7, 2026 | FY2025 10-K | 13F Dec-2025 | consensus Jun 2026)

Investment Thesis AI generated | cited

Synthesised from the FY2025 10-K, the four most-recent transcripts, earnings releases, and sell-side commentary. Every claim links to a primary source.

↗ Bull case

~3.8 GW of nuclear contracted to hyperscalers - the most in the US. Meta ~2,600 MW at PJM (Perry, Davis-Besse) + Amazon 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak, with ~3.2 GW of runway. Pathway to ~25% FCF/share accretion at full ramp. [Q1'26 transcript | May 7, 2026]
Scarce, dispatchable supply into 5-6% ERCOT load growth. 2nd-largest US competitive nuclear fleet (6,448 MW) plus a ~26 GW combined-cycle gas fleet pro forma Cogentrix, as PJM and ERCOT tighten. [Q1'26 | fleet]
Record Q1, reaffirmed guidance with upside excluded. Q1'26 Adj. EBITDA $1,494M; 2026 guide $6.8-7.6B and the 2027 $7.4-7.8B midpoint both exclude Cogentrix and the Meta PPAs. [Q1'26 release]
Investment grade and a powerful return engine. IG at two agencies; ~169M shares retired since 2021 at ~$37 (~30% of shares); >$10B forward cash generation 2026-27. [Q1'26]
Cheaper than the nuclear-scarcity peers. ~9.8x forward EV/EBITDA vs CEG ~13x and TLN ~11x; consensus Buy, PT median ~$230. [FactSet | consensus Jun 2026]

↘ Bear case

Merchant EBITDA is curve-levered. Management itself notes ERCOT forwards "come off" and grid batteries "returned virtually nothing"; a mild-weather or low-price year compresses the multiple fast. [Q1'26 transcript]
The AI-power narrative is substantially priced. Buy consensus, ~9.8x forward EV/EBITDA and ~41% implied upside leave little room for a demand-timing slip. [valuation]
Measured exposure is modest vs the fleet. On ABI's ticker-mapped axis the contracted book, while the largest in the group, is small relative to ~44 GW; the torque is power prices, not documented load. [ABI Signals]
Demand tightening is back-end-loaded. Management sees no meaningful tightening "until late 2027 or early 2028"; near-term curves and weather drive the print. [Q1'26 transcript]
Acquisition + regulatory risk. Cogentrix, Lotus and Energy Harbor integration plus FERC co-location rule-making can reshape hyperscaler deal economics. [M&A | FERC]

ABI Signals | Power & AI Infrastructure Alternative data

ABI's structured, ticker-mapped, point-in-time exposure layer, embedded on the Live Page. Read top to bottom: how much exposure, is it moving, is it priced, when does it resolve.

VST | Power & AI Exposure Setup

direction: tailwind | vintage Jun 24 2026 | compliance class: analytical_signal

Composite score

universe percentile

Large-load (wtd)

3,342 MW

contracted hyperscaler

Generation (wtd)

1,500 MW

organic + uprates

Priced-in gap

-21

vs merchant peers

1. Exposure | VST carries the largest absolute contracted hyperscaler nuclear book in the US (~3.8 GW), but against the ~44 GW fleet, exposure intensity ranks low-mid in the power universe (load score 25, gen score 33). The score reflects exposure relative to size, not headline MW.
2. What changed | ▲ +8 composite vs the prior vintage as the contracted book scaled (Amazon Comanche Peak Sept'25, Meta PJM Jan'26) - genuine signed contracts, not a maturity reshuffle.
3. Priced in | 9.8x forward EV/EBITDA, ~15% consensus growth, ~0.6% yield Rich / Ahead The exposure is real and leading, yet the merchant multiple and Buy consensus substantially price it. Caveat: merchant value also reflects power-price torque this metric does not capture, so the gap is a flag to investigate, not a verdict. The natural offset leg sits in regulated names (DUK, AEP) where exposure screens under-reflected.
4. Catalyst | Cogentrix close (2H 2026); PJM capacity auction (BRA); Meta/Amazon PPA ramp (Perry Dec'26, Davis-Besse & Comanche Peak 2027). Mid-term

Underlying project / source	Leg	Raw MW	Stage wt	Wtd MW	In-service
Meta PJM nuclear operating (Perry, Davis-Besse) [Jan 2026]	LOAD	2,176	0.90	1,958	Dec 2026-27
Amazon Comanche Peak PPA (ERCOT) [Sept 2025]	LOAD	1,200	0.90	1,080	Q4 2027
Meta nuclear uprates (Perry/Davis-Besse/Beaver Valley)	LOAD	433	0.70	303	2031-34
Organic development (Permian peakers, Oak Hill/Pulaski solar)	GEN	2,500	0.50	1,250	2026-28
Nuclear + PJM gas uprates	GEN	500	0.50	250	2027+

Cogentrix (~5,500 MW) and Lotus (~2,600 MW) are acquisitions of existing fleet - they enlarge the size denominator, not the interconnection-queue exposure. Exposure figures are maturity-weighted estimates from public disclosures, ISO queues, LBNL and EIA data.

Financials

Four years of real, filed figures. Revenue & Adjusted EBITDA | margins | cash flow | leverage. Source: FY2025 10-K and earnings reconciliations.

Revenue, Adj. EBITDA, EPS | FY22-25

FY ends Dec 31

Margin Stack | FY22-25

Adj. EBITDA margin / Net margin

Cash Flow & Capex

OCF | Capex | FCF (OCF-capex) in $M

Leverage Path | Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA

Disclosed; ~2.3x target by 2027

Multi-Year Build | Revenue, Adj. EBITDA, Capex Filed

FY2022-2025 actuals + 2026E guidance midpoint

The story in the series: a stable, cash-generative platform compounding on capital return and M&A, not a revenue-explosion. Ongoing Adjusted EBITDA stepped from $3.1B (FY22) to $5.9B (FY25) as the Energy Harbor nuclear fleet and stronger power/capacity prices flowed through, with 2026 guided to $6.8-7.6B. FY2024 GAAP net income was inflated by mark-to-market hedge gains; FY2025 GAAP net income of $944M reflects unrealized hedge losses, which is why Adjusted EBITDA is the cleaner read for a hedged merchant.

Source: Vistra FY2025 10-K | Q4'25 & Q1'26 results presentations (Ongoing Operations, non-GAAP where noted)

Annual Summary | 4Y

Source: 10-K filings (Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA / FCFbG)

$M unless noted	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Total operating revenues	13,728	14,779	17,224	17,738
Ongoing Adj. EBITDA	3,119	4,093	5,643	5,912
EBITDA margin	22.7%	27.7%	32.8%	33.3%
GAAP net income (loss)	(1,227)	1,493	2,659	944
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$(3.26)	$3.58	$7.00	$2.18
Cash from operations	485	5,453	4,563	4,070
Capital expenditures	1,301	1,676	2,078	2,752
Ongoing Adj. FCF before growth	n/a	n/a	2,888	3,592
Diluted wtd-avg shares (M)	422.4	375.2	352.6	345.7

FY2024 Adj. EBITDA restated to $5,643M (Moss Landing 100MW moved to Asset Closure). 2026 guidance: Adj. EBITDA $6.8-7.6B, Adj. FCFbG $3.925-4.725B; 2027 midpoint opportunity $7.4-7.8B. Both exclude Cogentrix and the Meta PPAs.

FY2025 Segment Adjusted EBITDA

Ongoing Operations | 12 months ended 12/31/2025

Segment	Adj. EBITDA ($M)	Note
East (PJM)	2,282	Largest contributor; PJM capacity + nuclear
Texas (ERCOT)	1,834	Generation + retail home market
Retail (TXU)	1,622	Record; guided toward ~$1.4B medium-term
West	244	CAISO
Corp / Other	(70)	Eliminations
Ongoing Consolidated	5,912	Asset Closure $(74)M excluded

Fundamental Drivers Filed | Real

What actually drives the P&L for a competitive power company: segment EBITDA, the generation fleet, the hedge book, and contracted demand. All figures from Vistra disclosures.

Segment Adjusted EBITDA | FY2025

Generation Capacity by Fuel

~44 GW total fleet

Contracted Hyperscaler Demand

Total contracted nuclear	~3.8 GW
Meta (PJM: Perry, Davis-Besse)	2,176 MW + 433 uprate
Amazon (Comanche Peak, ERCOT)	1,200 MW
Additional runway	~3.2 GW
FCF/share accretion at full ramp	~25%/yr

PJM operating-capacity PPAs require no incremental capex; uprates need growth capital through 2034.

Fleet, Hedging & Demand

Nuclear (2nd-largest US competitive)	6,448 MW
Retail customers	~5M (18 states + DC)
Generation hedged - 2026 / 2027	~99% / ~88%
ERCOT load-growth view (to 2030)	5-6% / yr
Pending: Cogentrix gas	~5,500 MW

Hedge book is the source of near-term confidence; data-center tightening seen "late 2027 / early 2028."

Transcript Language Evolution 13 quarters

How management's tone shifted across 13 earnings calls (Q1 2023 to Q1 2026), eight themes. Source: ABI analysis of corrected call transcripts.

Q1'23

Q2'23

Q3'23

Q4'23

Q1'24

Q2'24

Q3'24

Q4'24

Q1'25

Q2'25

Q3'25

Q4'25

Q1'26

Power demand & data-center / AI

PS

PS

PS

PS

MX

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

Nuclear strategy (Comanche Peak, PPAs)

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

MX

PS

PS

PS

PS

Power price & hedging

PS

PS

PS

MX

PS

MX

PF

MX

PS

PS

PS

PF

MX

Generation M&A & new-build

MX

MX

PS

MX

MX

MX

MX

MX

MX

PS

PS

PS

PS

Capital allocation (buybacks)

PS

PS

PS

PS

PF

PS

PS

PF

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

Retail (TXU, margins)

MX

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PF

PF

MX

MX

Balance sheet & investment grade

PS

PF

PF

PF

PF

PF

PS

PS

PF

PS

PS

PS

PS

Guidance & long-term EBITDA

PS

PS

PS

PF

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PF

StrengtheningPositive / flatMixedCautiousNot mentioned

Most positively inflecting

Nuclear strategy & M&A. Travelled from "patient, no rush" on data-center PPAs (2023-early 2025) to ~3.8 GW contracted with Amazon and Meta by Q4'25, and from "the economics don't pencil" on gas new-build to closing Lotus and announcing the 5,500 MW Cogentrix deal.

Most cautious / honest-softening

Power price & hedging (and retail). Management is candid that hedging, not the curve, is the source of confidence: curves "come off" again in Q1'26 and batteries "returned virtually nothing." Retail's 2025 record is guided back toward ~$1.4B on non-repeating tailwinds.

New language in Q4'25 / Q1'26: "bridge power," Cogentrix, Meta nuclear PPAs, investment grade with lien fall-away, FCF-before-growth per share ($12.5 → ~$16 → "$22-25" long-term), a demand-timing caveat (late 2027/2028), and fresh regulatory vocabulary (FERC co-location, PJM connect-and-manage, ERCOT "batch zero"). Faded since 2023: conditional gas-build framing and "two notches from IG, work to do."

Valuation interactive

Live DCF (drag the assumptions) triangulated against merchant-peer EV/EBITDA and the sell-side. Base case anchored to FY2025 revenue $17.7B and an ~33% Adj. EBITDA margin.

DCF Assumptions

Revenue growth5.0%

EBITDA margin38.0%

Capex % rev14.0%

ΔWC % rev1.0%

Tax rate23.0%

Risk-free4.3%

Equity risk prem.5.5%

Beta0.60

Cost of debt5.5%

Debt weight55%

Terminal growth2.5%

DCF Output

WACC

PV of FCF (5y)

PV of terminal

Enterprise value

Equity value

Fair value / share

Sensitivity | fair value per share across WACC (cols) × terminal growth (rows)

Exit multiple scales with terminal growth (~8-11x EV/EBITDA), the merchant range. Net debt $18.6B and 337M shares applied to bridge to equity.

Blended Fair Value

DCFRelative 60% DCF

DCF - blended with a relative-value anchor of ~$185 (merchant-peer EV/EBITDA). Spot $162.87; sell-side mean ~$230.

Fair-Value Triangulation

DCF | merchant comps | sell-side | spot

Merchant Peer Comps consensus Jun 2026

IPPs judged on EV/EBITDA, not P/E

Peer	EV/EBITDA (NTM)	Fwd P/E	EPS growth	ABI exposure read
VST Vistra	~9.8x	~15.9x	~15%	Real, leading book; largely priced (gap -21)
CEG Constellation	~13.2x	~24.5x	~20%+	Richest IPP vs exposure (gap -67)
TLN Talen	~11x	~18x	high	Priced ahead (gap -58)
NRG NRG Energy	~8.0x	~17x	~14%	Cheapest IPP, mid exposure (gap +21)

Institutional Ownership 13F | Dec 2025

Top holders from the ABI 13F dataset, as of 2025-12-31. Heavy index ownership; the marginal price-setter is the active / fast-money cohort on the AI-power theme.

Top-10 Holders (M shares)

Holder Detail

Holder	Shares	Value	Type
Vanguard	41.6M	$6.71B	Index
BlackRock	30.7M	$4.95B	Index
FMR (Fidelity)	17.0M	$2.74B	Active
State Street	16.5M	$2.66B	Index
JPMorgan	10.7M	$1.73B	Multi
Jane Street	9.2M	$1.49B	Quant
Geode	9.0M	$1.44B	Index
Morgan Stanley	7.9M	$1.28B	Multi
Susquehanna	6.6M	$1.07B	Quant
MFS	6.5M	$1.05B	Active

Notable active hedge-fund holder outside the top 10: Lone Pine Capital (~5.2M shares).

Insider Activity Form 4 | 2026

Recent Form 4 filings (SEC EDGAR). No open-market purchases; routine 10b5-1 sales and a director equity grant.

Buys vs Sells (shares)

0 open-market buys

~26K shares sold (10b5-1)

Recent Form 4 Detail

Insider	Action	Shares	Price	Date
J. Sult (Director)	Sell 10b5-1	6,500	$170.00	Jun 18, 2026
M. Montemayor (SVP, CAO)	Sell	4,600	$160.00	2026
P. Barbas (Director)	Sell 10b5-1	~15,000	market	2026
L. Crutchfield (Director)	Grant	1,268	award	May 19, 2026

Sales are pre-arranged 10b5-1 dispositions, typical of officers/directors diversifying after a strong run; not a directional signal on their own. Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 (CIK 0001692819).

Sell-Side & Management Voice consensus Jun 2026

Consensus rating and the analyst debate from the Q1 2026 call.

Rating Distribution

Consensus

Buy

PT median

$230

Implied upside

+41%

Fwd P/E

15.9x

Management Voice

Jim Burke, CEO (Q1'26)
"The load growth is real and is actualizing, and that creates meaningful opportunities for Vistra."

Jim Burke, CEO (Q4'25)
"We have now contracted approximately 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity... a 20-year agreement with Amazon Web Services for 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak and 20-year agreements with Meta covering 2,176 MW plus 433 MW of uprates."

Stacey Doré, CSO (Q1'26)
"There is a speed-to-power advantage while additional resources take longer to come on the grid."

Q1'26 Q&A pressed on FERC/PJM co-location, ERCOT forward-curve mispricing, customer-pause risk, bridge-power technology, and hedging capacity. Analysts: Wells Fargo, UBS, Wolfe, Melius, BNP, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies.

Catalyst Calendar

Dated events that would convert exposure into reported numbers.

Catalyst	Type	Horizon	Why it matters
Cogentrix acquisition close	Deal	2H 2026	Adds ~5,500 MW gas; guidance updated on close.
PJM capacity auction (BRA)	Market	Mid-term	Capacity prices drive merchant EBITDA; tight market is the bull lever.
Meta PPA ramp (Perry)	Deal	Dec 2026	First operating-capacity delivery; proof of hyperscaler demand.
Amazon Comanche Peak energization	Deal	Q4 2027	1,200 MW nuclear; full ramp by 2032.
FERC co-location ruling	Regulatory	Near-term	Shapes behind-the-meter / co-location deal economics sector-wide.
Quarterly prints + buyback cadence	Earnings	Recurring	EBITDA vs the $6.8-7.6B guide; capital-return pace.

Risk Register

The principal risks to the thesis, with severity.

Risk	Driver	Severity
Power / gas price compression	Merchant EBITDA is curve-levered; mild weather or soft forwards hit fast	High
Valuation / narrative reversal	Buy consensus, ~41% implied upside prices the AI-power story	High
Acquisition integration	Cogentrix + Lotus + Energy Harbor financing & execution	Medium
Regulatory (FERC co-location)	PJM co-location / connect-and-manage rules reshape hyperscaler economics	Medium
Demand-timing slip	Tightening not until late 2027/2028 per management	Medium
Asset-closure overhang	Moss Landing battery fire; insurance / closure costs	Low-Med

Recent Filings EDGAR

Primary-source documents, SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001692819).

Filing	Description	Date
10-Q	Q1 2026 quarterly report (rev $5,640M; net income $1,029M; diluted EPS $2.87)	May 2026
8-K	Q1 2026 results; reaffirmed 2026 guidance; second IG upgrade	May 7, 2026
10-K	FY2025 annual report	Feb 2026
8-K	Cogentrix acquisition (~$4.0B) and Meta nuclear PPAs announced	Jan 2026
Form 4	Insider transactions (directors / officers)	2026